Veronica Hardy vs Dione Barbosa

Jul 18, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast40%Veronica Hardy60%Dione BarbosaFull forecast

DateJul 18, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenuePaycom Center

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 18, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Veronica Hardy10-5-1Veronica Hardy vs Dione BarbosaDione BarbosaThe Witch |10-4-0

Veronica Hardy10-5-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-5-1Record10-4-0

30Age34

5'3"Height5'6"

64"Reach 66"

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Dione BarbosaThe Witch10-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Dione Barbosa owns a 44-point Elo edge (solid). Dione Barbosa shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Veronica Hardy and Dione Barbosa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Veronica HardyDione Barbosa

Recent form

Veronica HardyW L W W W · +58 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Dione BarbosaW W L W L · +16 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Elo edge

Veronica Hardy1591+15 last move

Dione Barbosa1635+19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Veronica Hardy#44 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1591 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Polyana Viana (rated 1588 at the time): +35.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ashlee Evans-Smith (rated 1568 at the time): -32.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +58 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #43 Lucero Acosta, 1 ahead of #45 Andrea Vázquez.

Dione Barbosa#30 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1635 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Rainn Guerrero (rated 1591 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jena Bishop (rated 1529 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +16 Elo in total.
Next places: 8 points behind #29 Veronika Smolková, 1 ahead of #31 Paulina Wisniewska.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

40%Veronica Hardy60%Dione Barbosa

Model favoriteDione Barbosa

Elo baseline53% for Dione Barbosa

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Dione BarbosaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Dione Barbosa leads the full model at 60%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1591 · 1635Dione Barbosa leads by 44 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1597 · 1579Veronica Hardy faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 14 fightsVeronica Hardy has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesVeronica Hardy 1 · 3 Dione BarbosaStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Dione Barbosa.

What's at stake

Veronica HardyNow 1591 · #44 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1609

Loses by decision-14→ 1577

Dione BarbosaNow 1635 · #30 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1649

Loses by decision-18→ 1617

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Veronica HardyvsDione Barbosa

Submission average

0.35vs1.74

Takedown average

0.82vs2.40

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.06vs2.21

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.24vs2.40

Finishing profile

Veronica Hardydecision leads 70% of wins

Dione Barbosasubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Veronica HardyDione Barbosa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.06Sig. strikes landed per min2.21

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

46Sig. strike accuracy45

UFC flyweight average : 44%

3.24Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.40

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

50Sig. strike defense64

UFC flyweight average : 55%

0.82Takedown average2.40

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

6Takedown accuracy8

UFC flyweight average : 26%

52Takedown defense64

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0.35Submission average1.74

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

1Wins by knockout0

2Wins by submission5

7Wins by decision5

1Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision3

Veronica Hardy vs Dione Barbosa is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : DU PLESSIS VS USMAN. Veronica Hardy enters with a 10-5-1 record and Dione Barbosa enters with a 10-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.