Youssef Boughanem vs Mohamed Soumah

Oct 31, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast56%Youssef Boughanem44%Mohamed SoumahFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueZénith de Strasbourg

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 2:30 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:30 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:30 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:30 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:30 AM
Your time

Youssef Boughanem5-0-0Youssef Boughanem vs Mohamed SoumahMohamed SoumahBlack Leg |4-3-0

Youssef Boughanem5-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

5-0-0Record4-3-0

36AgeTBD

6'0"Height6'2"

TBDReachTBD

161 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Mohamed SoumahBlack Leg4-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Youssef Boughanem owns a 73-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Youssef Boughanem and Mohamed Soumah across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Youssef BoughanemMohamed Soumah

Recent form

Youssef BoughanemW W W W W · +117 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Mohamed SoumahW L W W L · +41 Elo last 5

WLWWL

Elo edge

Youssef Boughanem1616+20 last move

Mohamed Soumah1543+28 last move

Why they are ranked here

Youssef Boughanem#180 of 376 active Welterweight fighters · 1616 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Dima Glevka (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +117 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #179 Jun Seo Choi, 2 ahead of #181 Ashley Reece.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1492 Elo over the last 5 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Mohamed Soumah#306 of 376 active Welterweight fighters · 1543 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mikhail Kosarin (rated 1500 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Soslan Gagloev (rated 1500 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +41 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #305 Bourama Camara, 1 ahead of #307 Jonathan Hanes.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

56%Youssef Boughanem44%Mohamed Soumah

Model favoriteYoussef Boughanem

Elo baseline60% for Youssef Boughanem

Matchup adjustment-4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Youssef BoughanemStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Youssef Boughanem leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 4 points.

Current Elo ratings1616 · 1543Youssef Boughanem leads by 73 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1492 · 1525Mohamed Soumah faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 7 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 7 fightsMohamed Soumah has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Youssef BoughanemNow 1616 · #180 Welterweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1635

Loses by decision-29→ 1587

Mohamed SoumahNow 1543 · #306 Welterweight

Wins by decision+29→ 1572

Loses by decision-19→ 1524

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Youssef BoughanemvsMohamed Soumah

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Youssef BoughanemKO/TKO leads 80% of wins

Mohamed SoumahKO/TKO leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Youssef BoughanemMohamed Soumah

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.65

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.43

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

4Wins by knockout4

0Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision0

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission3

0Losses by decision0

Youssef Boughanem vs Mohamed Soumah is a scheduled Welterweight fight on ARES FC 44 : YOUNOUSOV VS NAM. Youssef Boughanem enters with a 5-0-0 record and Mohamed Soumah enters with a 4-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.