Maher Belkhadir vs Marc-Philippe Ngatchou

Oct 31, 2026 · UFC Fight Pass

Combat Edge model forecast49%Maher Belkhadir51%Marc-Philippe NgatchouFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueZénith de Strasbourg

BroadcastUFC Fight Pass

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on UFC Fight Pass.

US East (ET): Sat 2:30 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:30 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:30 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:30 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:30 AM
Your time

Maher BelkhadirOhma |3-2-0Maher Belkhadir vs Marc-Philippe NgatchouMarc-Philippe NgatchouNGT |2-1-1

Maher BelkhadirOhma3-2-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

3-2-0Record2-1-1

TBDAgeTBD

5'10"Height5'11"

TBDReach-

155 lbsWeight156 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Marc-Philippe NgatchouNGT2-1-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Maher Belkhadir and Marc-Philippe Ngatchou across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Maher BelkhadirMarc-Philippe Ngatchou

Recent form

Maher BelkhadirL W W W L · +25 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Marc-Philippe NgatchouD W W L · +25 Elo last 4

DWWL

Elo edge

Maher Belkhadir1525-29 last move

Marc-Philippe Ngatchou1525-3 last move

Why they are ranked here

Maher Belkhadir#385 of 443 active Lightweight fighters · 1525 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Can Hircin (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Sofiane El Fatni (rated 1556 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +25 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #384 Damon Donald, 0 ahead of #386 Marc-Philippe Ngatchou.

Marc-Philippe Ngatchou#386 of 443 active Lightweight fighters · 1525 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yusuf Nazokatov (rated 1496 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Shay Ingram (rated 1500 at the time): -24.
Last 4 fights: 2 wins, 1 loss, +25 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #385 Maher Belkhadir, 0 ahead of #387 Yusuke Sato.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

49%Maher Belkhadir51%Marc-Philippe Ngatchou

Model favoriteMarc-Philippe Ngatchou

Elo baseline50% for Marc-Philippe Ngatchou

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Marc-Philippe NgatchouStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model breaks Elo tie

Elo alone has this matchup at 50/50. The full matchup model separates the fighters and leans Marc-Philippe Ngatchou at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1525 · 1525The fighters have the same published Elo rating.

Recent opponent quality1501 · 1489Maher Belkhadir faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 4 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 4 fightsMaher Belkhadir has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Maher BelkhadirNow 1525 · #385 Lightweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1549

Loses by decision-24→ 1501

Marc-Philippe NgatchouNow 1525 · #386 Lightweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1549

Loses by decision-24→ 1501

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Maher BelkhadirvsMarc-Philippe Ngatchou

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Maher BelkhadirKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Marc-Philippe NgatchouKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Maher BelkhadirMarc-Philippe Ngatchou

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 58%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

2Wins by knockout1

1Wins by submission0

0Wins by decision1

2Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision1

Maher Belkhadir vs Marc-Philippe Ngatchou is a scheduled Lightweight fight on ARES FC 44 : YOUNOUSOV VS NAM. Maher Belkhadir enters with a 3-2-0 record and Marc-Philippe Ngatchou enters with a 2-1-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.