UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos takes place on Saturday, September 26 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, airing on Paramount+. Raul Rosas Jr. (12-1-0) meets Raoni Barcelos (22-5-0) in the main event, scheduled for five rounds. The Combat Edge model makes Rosas Jr. a clear favorite at 66% — even though Elo ratings alone lean the other way (55% for Barcelos).
Both arrive in form: Rosas Jr. and Barcelos have each won five straight.
Main event: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos
| Raul Rosas Jr. | Raoni Barcelos | |
|---|---|---|
| 12-1-0 | Record | 22-5-0 |
| 21 | Age | 39 |
| 5'9" | Height | 5'7" |
| 67" | Reach | 67" |
| United States | Country | Brazil |
| 1743 (#22) | Combat Edge Elo | 1780 (#10) |
| W W W W W | Last 5 | W W W W W |
Barcelos actually holds the higher Elo (1780 to 1743); the model's lean toward Rosas Jr. comes from matchup and form factors beyond the rating. There's an 18-year age gap: Rosas Jr. is 21, Barcelos is 39. Our pick: Raul Rosas Jr. (66%).
Co-main event: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek
Rodolfo Vieira (11-5-0) faces Robert Bryczek (18-7-0) at middleweight. The model has Vieira at 59%. Vieira has lost two in a row.
UFC Fight Night predictions: every fight
| Fight | Model pick | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Main card | ||
| Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Raoni Barcelos | Raul Rosas Jr. | 66% |
| Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek | Rodolfo Vieira | 59% |
| Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu | Mehemmedeli Osmanli | 65% |
| Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black | Melissa Amaya | 52% |
| Brady Hiestand vs. Rinya Nakamura | Rinya Nakamura | 56% |
| Prelims | ||
| Rodolfo Bellato vs. Christian Edwards | Rodolfo Bellato | 66% |
| Josiah Harrell vs. Elves Brener | Elves Brener | 57% |
| Montel Jackson vs. Ricky Simón | Montel Jackson | 63% |
| Norma Dumont vs. Ailín Pérez | Ailín Pérez | 61% |
| John Castañeda vs. Alatengheili | John Castañeda | 78% |
| Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui | Yazmin Jauregui | 84% |
Fights to watch
- Closest call: Melissa Amaya vs. Tina Black — the model has Amaya at just 52%.
- Biggest favorite: Yazmin Jauregui at 84% in Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Yazmin Jauregui.
- Model vs. Elo: in Rodolfo Vieira vs. Robert Bryczek, the model picks Rodolfo Vieira (59%) even though Elo favors the other side.
- Hottest streak: Mehemmedeli Osmanli enters on five straight wins.
Make your picks
Think you can beat the model? Pick every fight for free on the UFC Fight Night predictions page — picks lock when the card starts and are graded the morning after. Full bout order and start times are on the UFC Fight Night fight card.
This preview is generated from Combat Edge's fight database and prediction model. Win probabilities are frozen before the event and graded publicly on our accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
Loading comments…