Raul Rosas Jr.13-1-0
Raoni Barcelos22-6-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Raul Rosas Jr. won
65%Raul Rosas Jr.35%Raoni Barcelos
Combat Edge Model · Full card
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos predictions
Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos (September 26, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
12Total bouts
12Frozen forecasts
1Close matchups
3Model / Elo splits
2Strong model leans
LockedFight card started
Card intelligence
Find the fights that matter
Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.
Showing all 12 matchups.
Main card
Main card predictions
5 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Norma Dumont13-4-0
Ailín Pérez14-2-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Ailín Pérez won
39%Norma Dumont61%Ailín Pérez
Luis Hernandez9-0-0
Sedriques Dumas10-6-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Luis Hernandez won
60%Luis Hernandez40%Sedriques Dumas
Mehemmedeli Osmanli11-2-0
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu10-3-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu won
70%Mehemmedeli Osmanli30%Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu
Melissa Amaya8-1-0
Tina Black16-4-0
Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Tina Black won
52%Melissa Amaya49%Tina Black
Prelims
Prelims predictions
7 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.
Brady Hiestand9-2-0
Rinya Nakamura10-2-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Brady Hiestand won
44%Brady Hiestand56%Rinya Nakamura
Rodolfo Vieira12-5-0
Robert Bryczek18-8-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Rodolfo Vieira won
59%Rodolfo Vieira41%Robert Bryczek
Rodolfo Bellato13-4-1
Christian Edwards9-5-0
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Christian Edwards won
67%Rodolfo Bellato34%Christian Edwards
Josiah Harrell11-2-0
Elves Brener17-6-0
Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Elves Brener won
43%Josiah Harrell57%Elves Brener
Montel Jackson16-4-0
Ricky Simón22-8-1
Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Montel Jackson won
63%Montel Jackson37%Ricky Simón
John Castañeda21-9-1
Alatengheili18-10-2
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Alatengheili won
78%John Castañeda22%Alatengheili
Vanessa Demopoulos11-9-0
Yazmin Jauregui12-2-0
Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Yazmin Jauregui won
16%Vanessa Demopoulos84%Yazmin Jauregui