UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan takes place on Saturday, October 31 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, airing on Paramount+. Renato Moicano (21-7-1) meets Tom Nolan (11-1-0) in the main event, scheduled for five rounds. The Combat Edge model makes Nolan a clear favorite at 71% — even though Elo ratings alone lean the other way (52% for Moicano).
Nolan enters on a five-fight win streak.
Main event: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan
| Renato Moicano | Tom Nolan | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-7-1 | Record | 11-1-0 |
| 37 | Age | 26 |
| 5'11" | Height | 6'2" |
| 72″ | Reach | 73" |
| Brazil | Country | Australia |
| 1743 (#28) | Combat Edge Elo | 1727 (#46) |
| W L L W W | Last 5 | W W W W W |
Moicano actually holds the higher Elo (1743 to 1727); the model's lean toward Nolan comes from matchup and form factors beyond the rating. There's an 11-year age gap: Nolan is 26, Moicano is 37. Our pick: Tom Nolan (71%).
Co-main event: Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith
Randy Brown (20-8-0) faces Jacobe Smith (13-0-0) at welterweight. The model has Smith at 65%. Smith enters on a five-fight win streak.
UFC Fight Night predictions: every fight
| Fight | Model pick | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Main card | ||
| Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan | Tom Nolan | 71% |
| Randy Brown vs. Jacobe Smith | Jacobe Smith | 65% |
| Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden | Cody Durden | 52% |
| Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos | Luana Santos | 73% |
| Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov | Farman Hasanov | 59% |
| Prelims | ||
| Francis Marshall vs. Dakota Hope | Francis Marshall | 58% |
| Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren | Theodor Berggren | 81% |
| Julian Erosa vs. Jeong Yeong Lee | Jeong Yeong Lee | 63% |
| Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall | Zach Reese | 78% |
| Nick Klein vs. Joseph Kropschot | Joseph Kropschot | 56% |
| Talita Alencar vs. Piera Rodriguez | Piera Rodriguez | 66% |
| Lucia Szabová vs. Tainara Lisboa | Lucia Szabová | 74% |
Fights to watch
- Closest call: Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden — the model has Durden at just 52%.
- Biggest favorite: Theodor Berggren at 81% in Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Theodor Berggren.
- Model vs. Elo: in Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov, the model picks Farman Hasanov (59%) even though Elo favors the other side.
- Hottest streak: Jacobe Smith enters on five straight wins.
Make your picks
Think you can beat the model? Pick every fight for free on the UFC Fight Night predictions page — picks lock when the card starts and are graded the morning after. Full bout order and start times are on the UFC Fight Night fight card.
This preview is generated from Combat Edge's fight database and prediction model. Win probabilities are frozen before the event and graded publicly on our accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.
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