Cássio Barão vs Kevin Pease

DateOct 16, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueWintrust Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 16, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Cássio BarãoBarao |10-1-1Cássio Barão vs Kevin PeaseKevin PeaseSweet Pea |8-0-0

Cássio BarãoBarao10-1-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-1-1Record8-0-0

31Age28

5'8"Height5'8"

71"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight170 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Kevin PeaseSweet Pea8-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kevin Pease owns a 36-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Cássio Barão and Kevin Pease across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Cássio BarãoKevin Pease

Recent form

Cássio BarãoW W L W D · 0 Elo last 5

WWLWD

Kevin PeaseW W W W W · +97 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Cássio Barão1641+12 last move

Kevin Pease1677+20 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

39%Cássio Barão61%Kevin Pease

Model favoriteKevin Pease

Elo baseline55% for Kevin Pease

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Kevin PeaseStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Kevin Pease leads the full model at 61%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1641 · 1677Kevin Pease leads by 36 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1503 · 1519Kevin Pease faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 8 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 8 fightsCássio Barão has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Cássio BarãovsKevin Pease

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Cássio Barãosubmission leads 50% of wins

Kevin Peasesubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Cássio BarãoKevin Pease

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

4Wins by knockout1

5Wins by submission4

1Wins by decision3

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Cássio Barão vs Kevin Pease is a scheduled Lightweight fight on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2. Cássio Barão enters with a 10-1-1 record and Kevin Pease enters with a 8-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.