Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov

Oct 24, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast51%Colby Thicknesse49%Asaf ChopurovFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Colby ThicknesseGolden Boy |9-1-0Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf ChopurovAsaf ChopurovHoney Badger |11-0-0

Colby ThicknesseGolden Boy9-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-1-0Record11-0-0

27Age24

5'9"Height5'7"

69"Reach-

125 lbsWeight135 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Asaf ChopurovHoney Badger11-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Asaf Chopurov owns a 59-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Colby Thicknesse and Asaf Chopurov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Colby ThicknesseAsaf Chopurov

Recent form

Colby ThicknesseW W L W W · +57 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Asaf ChopurovW W W W W · +82 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Colby Thicknesse1669+23 last move

Asaf Chopurov1728+16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Colby Thicknesse#97 of 352 active Bantamweight fighters · 1669 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Shaun Johnson (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Aleksandre Topuria (rated 1547 at the time): -31.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +57 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #96 Ciaran Clarke, 1 ahead of #98 Muin Gafurov.

Asaf Chopurov#36 of 352 active Bantamweight fighters · 1728 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Denis Lavrentyev (rated 1631 at the time): +33.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +82 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #35 Victor Henry, 4 ahead of #37 Marlon Vera.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1530 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

51%Colby Thicknesse49%Asaf Chopurov

Model favoriteColby Thicknesse

Elo baseline42% for Colby Thicknesse

Matchup adjustment+9 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Colby ThicknesseStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Colby Thicknesse is 51%, after Elo alone favored Asaf Chopurov at 58%.

Current Elo ratings1669 · 1728Asaf Chopurov leads by 59 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1534 · 1530Colby Thicknesse faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth10 · 11 fightsAsaf Chopurov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Colby ThicknesseNow 1669 · #97 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1688

Loses by decision-13→ 1656

Asaf ChopurovNow 1728 · #36 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1741

Loses by decision-19→ 1709

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Colby ThicknessevsAsaf Chopurov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Colby Thicknessedecision leads 56% of wins

Asaf ChopurovKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Colby ThicknesseAsaf Chopurov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.24Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

41Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

2.93Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

54Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

0.67Takedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

33Takedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

1.67Submission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.62

2Wins by knockout5

2Wins by submission5

5Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Colby Thicknesse vs Asaf Chopurov is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Colby Thicknesse enters with a 9-1-0 record and Asaf Chopurov enters with a 11-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.