Levan Khabalaev vs Morquez Forest

Oct 16, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast52%Levan Khabalaev48%Morquez ForestFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 16, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueWintrust Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 16, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Fri 7:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 4:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Levan Khabalaev6-0-0Levan Khabalaev vs Morquez ForestMorquez ForestBlack Clover |8-2-0

Levan Khabalaev6-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

6-0-0Record8-2-0

27Age33

6'2"Height5'9"

74"Reach69"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Morquez ForestBlack Clover8-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Levan Khabalaev owns a 11-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Levan Khabalaev and Morquez Forest across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Levan KhabalaevMorquez Forest

Recent form

Levan KhabalaevW W W W W · +134 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Morquez ForestL W W W L · +5 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Elo edge

Levan Khabalaev1634+29 last move

Morquez Forest1623-17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Levan Khabalaev#193 of 398 active Lightweight fighters · 1634 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Chamy Delva (rated 1610 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +134 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #192 Landry Ward, 0 ahead of #194 Mandel Nallo.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1542 Elo over the last 5 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Morquez Forest#211 of 398 active Lightweight fighters · 1623 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Chad Ritter (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Robert Watley (rated 1701 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #210 Gauge Young, 0 ahead of #212 Rolando Bedoya.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

52%Levan Khabalaev48%Morquez Forest

Model favoriteLevan Khabalaev

Elo baseline51% for Levan Khabalaev

Matchup adjustment+1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Levan KhabalaevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Levan Khabalaev leads the full model at 52%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model keeps the same probability.

Current Elo ratings1634 · 1623Levan Khabalaev leads by 11 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1542 · 1526Levan Khabalaev faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 10 fightsMorquez Forest has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Levan KhabalaevNow 1634 · #193 Lightweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1657

Loses by decision-25→ 1609

Morquez ForestNow 1623 · #211 Lightweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1640

Loses by decision-15→ 1608

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Levan KhabalaevvsMorquez Forest

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Levan KhabalaevKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Morquez ForestKO/TKO leads 38% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Levan KhabalaevMorquez Forest

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.68

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 28%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

4Wins by knockout3

1Wins by submission2

1Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision1

Levan Khabalaev vs Morquez Forest is a scheduled Lightweight fight on PFL CHICAGO : CARMOUCHE VS BISHOP 2. Levan Khabalaev enters with a 6-0-0 record and Morquez Forest enters with a 8-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.