Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova

Oct 10, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast58%Alice Pereira42%Darya ZheleznyakovaFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionWomen's Bantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Alice PereiraGolden Girl |7-1-0Alice Pereira vs Darya ZheleznyakovaDarya ZheleznyakovaIron Lady |10-3-0

Alice PereiraGolden Girl7-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

7-1-0Record10-3-0

20Age30

5'8"Height5'9"

71"Reach68"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

Women's BantamweightWeight ClassWomen's Bantamweight

Darya ZheleznyakovaIron Lady10-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Darya Zheleznyakova owns a 22-point Elo edge (solid). Darya Zheleznyakova shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Alice Pereira and Darya Zheleznyakova across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alice PereiraDarya Zheleznyakova

Recent form

Alice PereiraW L W W W · +68 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Darya ZheleznyakovaL W L W W · +16 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Elo edge

Alice Pereira1616+27 last move

Darya Zheleznyakova1638-18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Alice Pereira#25 of 62 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1616 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Hailey Cowan (rated 1565 at the time): +27.
Costliest loss: Lost to Montserrat Rendon (rated 1599 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +68 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #24 Summer Onley, 3 ahead of #26 Luana Carolina.

Darya Zheleznyakova#18 of 62 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1638 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Montserrat Rendon (rated 1622 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Melissa Mullins (rated 1596 at the time): -28.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +16 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #17 Miesha Tate, 5 ahead of #19 Julianna Peña.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

58%Alice Pereira42%Darya Zheleznyakova

Model favoriteAlice Pereira

Elo baseline47% for Alice Pereira

Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alice PereiraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Alice Pereira is 58%, after Elo alone favored Darya Zheleznyakova at 53%.

Current Elo ratings1616 · 1638Darya Zheleznyakova leads by 22 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1504 · 1562Darya Zheleznyakova faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 13 fightsDarya Zheleznyakova has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAlice Pereira 1 · 3 Darya ZheleznyakovaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Darya Zheleznyakova.

What's at stake

Alice PereiraNow 1616 · #25 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+26→ 1642

Loses by decision-22→ 1594

Darya ZheleznyakovaNow 1638 · #18 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1653

Loses by decision-17→ 1621

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Alice PereiravsDarya Zheleznyakova

Takedown accuracy

0%vs100%

Takedown average

0vs0.44

Sig. strikes landed per min

2.83vs4.75

Takedown defense

75%vs50%

Finishing profile

Alice PereiraKO/TKO leads 71% of wins

Darya ZheleznyakovaKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Montserrat Rendon Alice Pereira: loss · Decision (Split) · Sep 13, 2025 Darya Zheleznyakova: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Mar 23, 2024

Tale of the tape

Alice PereiraDarya Zheleznyakova

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.83Sig. strikes landed per min4.75

UFC bantamweight average : 3.71

37Sig. strike accuracy42

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

3.11Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.83

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

67Sig. strike defense69

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

0Takedown average0.44

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

0Takedown accuracy100

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

75Takedown defense50

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0Submission average0

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

5Wins by knockout5

1Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision5

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision1

Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova is a scheduled Women's Bantamweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Alice Pereira enters with a 7-1-0 record and Darya Zheleznyakova enters with a 10-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.