Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes

Nov 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast56%Kayla Harrison44%Amanda NunesFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionUFC Bantamweight Championship

StatusScheduled

VenueMadison Square Garden

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 2:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 3:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 PM
Your time

Kayla Harrison19-1-0Kayla Harrison vs Amanda NunesAmanda NunesLioness |23-5-0

Kayla Harrison19-1-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

19-1-0Record23-5-0

36Age38

5'8"Height5'8"

66″Reach69"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

UFC Bantamweight ChampionshipWeight ClassUFC Bantamweight Championship

Amanda NunesLioness23-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Amanda Nunes owns a 17-point Elo edge (great). Kayla Harrison shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Kayla Harrison and Amanda Nunes across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Kayla HarrisonAmanda Nunes

Recent form

Kayla HarrisonW W W W L · +32 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Amanda NunesW W L W W · +13 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Kayla Harrison1778+13 last move

Amanda Nunes1795+10 last move

Why they are ranked here

Kayla Harrison#1 of 66 active Women Bantamweight fighters · 1778 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Holly Holm (rated 1649 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Larissa Pacheco (rated 1663 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +32 Elo in total.
Next places: 27 ahead of #2 Ronda Rousey.

Amanda NunesNot on the active ladder · 1795 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Cris Cyborg (rated 1806 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Julianna Peña (rated 1611 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +13 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1726, not 1795: 69 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

56%Kayla Harrison44%Amanda Nunes

Model favoriteKayla Harrison

Elo baseline48% for Kayla Harrison

Matchup adjustment+8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Kayla HarrisonStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Kayla Harrison is 56%, after Elo alone favored Amanda Nunes at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1778 · 1795Amanda Nunes leads by 17 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1579 · 1655Amanda Nunes faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth20 · 24 fightsAmanda Nunes has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesKayla Harrison 4 · 0 Amanda NunesStrongest available gap: Sig. strikes absorbed per min toward Kayla Harrison.

What's at stake

Kayla HarrisonNow 1778 · #1 Women Bantamweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1795

Loses by decision-15→ 1763

Amanda NunesNow 1795

Wins by decision+15→ 1810

Loses by decision-17→ 1778

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Kayla HarrisonvsAmanda Nunes

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

1.10vs2.62

Submission average

0.95vs0.70

Takedown defense

100%vs82%

Sig. strike accuracy

62%vs52%

Finishing profile

Kayla Harrisonsubmission leads 42% of wins

Amanda NunesKO/TKO leads 57% of wins

Common opponents

Julianna Peña Kayla Harrison: win · Submission (Kimura) · Jun 7, 2025 Amanda Nunes: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jun 10, 2023

Julianna Peña Kayla Harrison: win · Submission (Kimura) · Jun 7, 2025 Amanda Nunes: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jul 30, 2022

Julianna Peña Kayla Harrison: win · Submission (Kimura) · Jun 7, 2025 Amanda Nunes: loss · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Dec 11, 2021

Tale of the tape

Kayla HarrisonAmanda Nunes

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.29Sig. strikes landed per min4.55

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

62Sig. strike accuracy52

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

1.10Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.62

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

66Sig. strike defense58

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

2.84Takedown average2.73

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

13Takedown accuracy15

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

100Takedown defense82

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0.95Submission average0.70

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

6Wins by knockout13

8Wins by submission4

5Wins by decision6

0Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission2

1Losses by decision1

Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes is a scheduled UFC Bantamweight Championship fight on UFC 334 : GANE VS HOKIT. Kayla Harrison enters with a 19-1-0 record and Amanda Nunes enters with a 23-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.