Sebastian Polanco vs Isaac Herbert

Nov 6, 2026 · UFC FIGHT PASS

Combat Edge model forecast51%Sebastian Polanco49%Isaac HerbertFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 6, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCasino Du Lac Leamy

BroadcastUFC FIGHT PASS

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, November 6, 2026 — watch on UFC FIGHT PASS.

US East (ET): Fri 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Fri 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 10:00 AM
Your time

Sebastian PolancoBandido |3-3-1Sebastian Polanco vs Isaac HerbertIsaac HerbertThe Hooligan |3-0-0

Sebastian PolancoBandido3-3-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

3-3-1Record3-0-0

TBDAge23

5'9"Height5'8"

-ReachTBD

145 lbsWeight135 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Isaac HerbertThe Hooligan3-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Isaac Herbert owns a 71-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Sebastian Polanco and Isaac Herbert across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Sebastian PolancoIsaac Herbert

Recent form

Sebastian PolancoL L W L W · -26 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Isaac HerbertW W W · +73 Elo last 3

WWW

Elo edge

Sebastian Polanco1502-24 last move

Isaac Herbert1573+22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Sebastian Polanco#313 of 344 active Bantamweight fighters · 1502 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Raul Farias (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Franco Crivellaro (rated 1500 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -26 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #312 Nathan Haywood, 1 ahead of #314 Kamil Korzeniowski.

Isaac Herbert#249 of 344 active Bantamweight fighters · 1573 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Lucas Taylor (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 3 fights: 3 wins, 0 losses, +73 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #248 Ieuan Mackenzie, 0 ahead of #250 Nick Aguirre.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1490 Elo over the last 3 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

51%Sebastian Polanco49%Isaac Herbert

Model favoriteSebastian Polanco

Elo baseline40% for Sebastian Polanco

Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Sebastian PolancoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Sebastian Polanco is 51%, after Elo alone favored Isaac Herbert at 60%.

Current Elo ratings1502 · 1573Isaac Herbert leads by 71 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1523 · 1490Sebastian Polanco faced the stronger recent schedule (6 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth6 · 3 fightsSebastian Polanco has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Sebastian PolancoNow 1502 · #313 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+29→ 1531

Loses by decision-19→ 1483

Isaac HerbertNow 1573 · #249 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1592

Loses by decision-29→ 1544

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Sebastian PolancovsIsaac Herbert

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Sebastian Polancodecision leads 67% of wins

Isaac Herbertsubmission leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Sebastian PolancoIsaac Herbert

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

1Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission2

2Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision0

Sebastian Polanco vs Isaac Herbert is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on SAMOURAI MMA 22 : BONIN VS AVELLAN. Sebastian Polanco enters with a 3-3-1 record and Isaac Herbert enters with a 3-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.