Combat Edge Model · Full card

UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MEDIC VS RODRIGUEZ predictions

Model win probabilities for every bout on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MEDIC VS RODRIGUEZ (August 1, 2026), computed from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. Forecasts freeze before fight night and every result is graded on the public accuracy tracker. Analytics, not betting advice.

Join the discussion Event overview

14Total bouts

14Frozen forecasts

3Close matchups

4Model / Elo splits

4Strong model leans

LockedFight card started

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Scan every matchup, isolate close calls, or find where the full model and Elo baseline see different winners.

Showing all 14 matchups.

Main card

Main card predictions

6 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Welterweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Uros Medic14-3-0

Daniel Rodriguez20-6-0

Model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Uros Medic won

70%Uros Medic30%Daniel Rodriguez

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 44% / 56%

Light Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Jan Błachowicz29-12-2

Navajo Stirling11-0-0

Strong model leanModel / Elo splitModel hit · Navajo Stirling won

28%Jan Błachowicz72%Navajo Stirling

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%

Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Aleksandar Rakić15-6-0

Marcin Tybura27-12-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Aleksandar Rakić won

40%Aleksandar Rakić60%Marcin Tybura

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 44% / 56%

Middleweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Duško Todorović13-7-0

Robert Valentin12-6-0

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Robert Valentin won

47%Duško Todorović53%Robert Valentin

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 54% / 46%

Middleweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Vlasto Čepo14-4-0

Gilbert Urbina8-4-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Gilbert Urbina won

66%Vlasto Čepo34%Gilbert Urbina

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 62% / 38%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Miloš Janičić19-4-0

Noah Gugnon10-2-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Noah Gugnon won

61%Miloš Janičić39%Noah Gugnon

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 58% / 42%

Prelims

Prelims predictions

8 matchups · model probability, Elo baseline, fighter records, and your pick in one place.

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Ľudovít Klein24-6-1

Tofiq Musayev24-6-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Tofiq Musayev won

72%Ľudovít Klein28%Tofiq Musayev

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 56% / 44%

Welterweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Oban Elliott12-5-0

Michael Oliveira10-0-0

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Michael Oliveira won

39%Oban Elliott61%Michael Oliveira

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 44% / 56%

Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Borislav Nikolić17-2-0

Mark Vologdin12-5-2

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Borislav Nikolić won

62%Borislav Nikolić38%Mark Vologdin

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 58% / 42%

Featherweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Dennis Buzukja12-7-0

Bogdan Grad16-4-0

Close matchupModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Bogdan Grad won

48%Dennis Buzukja53%Bogdan Grad

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 42% / 59%

Lightweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Mateusz Rębecki21-5-0

Kyle Prepolec18-11-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Mateusz Rębecki won

88%Mateusz Rębecki12%Kyle Prepolec

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 70% / 30%

Women's Bantamweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Nina Milošević9-1-0

Hailey Cowan7-6-0

Strong model leanModel + Elo agreeModel hit · Nina Milošević won

73%Nina Milošević27%Hailey Cowan

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 65% / 35%

Heavyweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Jovan Leka14-2-0

Alexander Poppeck21-6-0

Close matchupModel / Elo splitModel hit · Jovan Leka won

53%Jovan Leka47%Alexander Poppeck

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 48% / 52%

Women's Strawweightv0.5-2026-07-01

Marina Spasić7-2-0

Stephanie Luciano8-2-1

Model leanModel + Elo agreeModel miss · Stephanie Luciano won

60%Marina Spasić40%Stephanie Luciano

Combat Edge win probabilityElo alone: 52% / 48%