Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun

Oct 24, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast52%Abubakar Vagaev48%Jacob MalkounFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Abubakar Vagaev25-4-0Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob MalkounJacob MalkounMamba |10-3-0

Abubakar Vagaev25-4-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

25-4-0Record10-3-0

33Age31

5'11"Height5'9"

73"Reach73"

171 lbsWeight185 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Jacob MalkounMamba10-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Abubakar Vagaev owns a 79-point Elo edge (great). Jacob Malkoun shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Abubakar Vagaev and Jacob Malkoun across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Abubakar VagaevJacob Malkoun

Recent form

Abubakar VagaevW W W W L · +33 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Jacob MalkounW W W L W · +69 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Elo edge

Abubakar Vagaev1769+12 last move

Jacob Malkoun1690+15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Abubakar Vagaev#23 of 358 active Welterweight fighters · 1769 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Michel Prazeres (rated 1795 at the time): +15.
Costliest loss: Lost to Vitaly Slipenko (rated 1649 at the time): -18.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +33 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #22 Bibert Tumenov, 0 ahead of #24 Neil Magny.

Jacob Malkoun#69 of 281 active Middleweight fighters · 1690 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Abdul Razak Alhassan (rated 1670 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Phil Hawes (rated 1598 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +69 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #68 Carlos Petruzzella, 2 ahead of #70 Mike Shipman.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

52%Abubakar Vagaev48%Jacob Malkoun

Model favoriteAbubakar Vagaev

Elo baseline61% for Abubakar Vagaev

Matchup adjustment-9 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Abubakar VagaevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Abubakar Vagaev leads the full model at 52%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 9 points.

Current Elo ratings1769 · 1690Abubakar Vagaev leads by 79 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1656 · 1647Abubakar Vagaev faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth30 · 14 fightsAbubakar Vagaev has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAbubakar Vagaev 0 · 4 Jacob MalkounStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Jacob Malkoun.

What's at stake

Abubakar VagaevNow 1769 · #23 Welterweight

Wins by decision+9→ 1778

Loses by decision-15→ 1754

Jacob MalkounNow 1690 · #69 Middleweight

Wins by decision+20→ 1710

Loses by decision-12→ 1678

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Abubakar VagaevvsJacob Malkoun

Takedown accuracy

0%vs17%

Submission average

0vs0.75

Sig. strikes landed per min

1.80vs4.23

Sig. strike accuracy

39%vs57%

Finishing profile

Abubakar Vagaevdecision leads 80% of wins

Jacob Malkoundecision leads 70% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Abubakar VagaevJacob Malkoun

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.80Sig. strikes landed per min4.23

UFC welterweight average : 3.65

39Sig. strike accuracy57

UFC welterweight average : 46%

2.20Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.33

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

60Sig. strike defense55

UFC welterweight average : 53%

4Takedown average5.39

UFC welterweight average : 1.42

0Takedown accuracy17

UFC welterweight average : 30%

71Takedown defense56

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0Submission average0.75

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

4Wins by knockout3

1Wins by submission0

20Wins by decision7

3Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision1

Abubakar Vagaev vs Jacob Malkoun is a scheduled Middleweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Abubakar Vagaev enters with a 25-4-0 record and Jacob Malkoun enters with a 10-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.