Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari

Oct 24, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast80%Iasmin Lucindo20%Nicolle CaliariFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 24, 2026

DivisionWomen's Strawweight

StatusScheduled

VenueEtihad Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 24, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 2:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 11:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 7:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 8:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Iasmin Lucindo18-6-0Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle CaliariNicolle Caliari9-4-0

Iasmin Lucindo18-6-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

18-6-0Record9-4-0

24Age29

5'4"Height5'3"

66″Reach 62"

115 lbsWeight116 lbs

Women's StrawweightWeight ClassWomen's Strawweight

Nicolle Caliari9-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Iasmin Lucindo owns a 118-point Elo edge (good). Nicolle Caliari shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Iasmin Lucindo and Nicolle Caliari across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Iasmin LucindoNicolle Caliari

Recent form

Iasmin LucindoW L W W W · +41 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Nicolle CaliariW L L W W · +14 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Elo edge

Iasmin Lucindo1713+13 last move

Nicolle Caliari1595+20 last move

Why they are ranked here

Iasmin Lucindo#6 of 106 active Women Strawweight fighters · 1713 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Beriuzka Canelon (rated 1500 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Amanda Lemos (rated 1699 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +41 Elo in total.
Next places: 17 points behind #5 Denise Gomes, 0 ahead of #7 Xiaonan Yan.

Nicolle Caliari#65 of 106 active Women Strawweight fighters · 1595 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Carolina Jiménez (rated 1540 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Kay Hansen (rated 1536 at the time): -30.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +14 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #64 Emily Ducote, 2 ahead of #66 Molly McCann.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

80%Iasmin Lucindo20%Nicolle Caliari

Model favoriteIasmin Lucindo

Elo baseline66% for Iasmin Lucindo

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Iasmin LucindoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Iasmin Lucindo leads the full model at 80%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 13 points.

Current Elo ratings1713 · 1595Iasmin Lucindo leads by 118 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1613 · 1521Iasmin Lucindo faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth18 · 12 fightsIasmin Lucindo has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesIasmin Lucindo 1 · 3 Nicolle CaliariStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Nicolle Caliari.

What's at stake

Iasmin LucindoNow 1713 · #6 Women Strawweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1724

Loses by decision-21→ 1692

Nicolle CaliariNow 1595 · #65 Women Strawweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1616

Loses by decision-11→ 1584

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Iasmin LucindovsNicolle Caliari

Takedown accuracy

0%vs9%

Submission average

0.15vs1.01

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.80vs5.59

Takedown average

2.28vs3.38

Finishing profile

Iasmin LucindoKO/TKO leads 44% of wins

Nicolle CaliariKO/TKO leads 56% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Iasmin LucindoNicolle Caliari

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.22Sig. strikes landed per min2.88

UFC strawweight average : 4.14

45Sig. strike accuracy40

UFC strawweight average : 45%

2.80Sig. strikes absorbed per min5.59

UFC strawweight average : 4.09

62Sig. strike defense52

UFC strawweight average : 54%

2.28Takedown average3.38

UFC strawweight average : 1.38

0Takedown accuracy9

UFC strawweight average : 31%

69Takedown defense50

UFC strawweight average : 59%

0.15Submission average1.01

UFC strawweight average : 0.43

8Wins by knockout5

3Wins by submission4

7Wins by decision0

1Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission1

3Losses by decision2

Iasmin Lucindo vs Nicolle Caliari is a scheduled Women's Strawweight fight on UFC 333 : VOLKANOVSKI VS EVLOEV. Iasmin Lucindo enters with a 18-6-0 record and Nicolle Caliari enters with a 9-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.