Israel Adesanya vs Shara Magomedov

Dec 5, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast42%Israel Adesanya58%Shara MagomedovFull forecast and your pick

DateDec 5, 2026

DivisionMiddleweight

StatusScheduled

VenueANB Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, December 5, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 AM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 2:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 3:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 1:00 AM
Your time

Israel AdesanyaThe Last Stylebender |24-6-0Israel Adesanya vs Shara MagomedovShara MagomedovShara Bullet |17-1-0

Israel AdesanyaThe Last Stylebender24-6-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

24-6-0Record17-1-0

37Age32

6'4"Height6'2"

80"Reach73"

185 lbsWeight186 lbs

MiddleweightWeight ClassMiddleweight

Shara MagomedovShara Bullet17-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Shara Magomedov owns a 3-point Elo edge (great). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Israel Adesanya and Shara Magomedov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Israel AdesanyaShara Magomedov

Recent form

Israel AdesanyaL L L L W · -61 Elo last 5

LLLLW

Shara MagomedovW W L W W · +40 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Israel Adesanya1761-16 last move

Shara Magomedov1764+14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Israel Adesanya#15 of 287 active Middleweight fighters · 1761 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Alex Pereira (rated 1708 at the time): +13.
Costliest loss: Lost to Alex Pereira (rated 1665 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -61 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #14 Shara Magomedov, 5 ahead of #16 Jason Jackson.

Shara Magomedov#14 of 287 active Middleweight fighters · 1764 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mikhail Ragozin (rated 1577 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Michael Page (rated 1799 at the time): -14.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +40 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #13 Joe Pyfer, 3 ahead of #15 Israel Adesanya.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

42%Israel Adesanya58%Shara Magomedov

Model favoriteShara Magomedov

Elo baseline50% for Shara Magomedov

Matchup adjustment+8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Shara MagomedovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Shara Magomedov leads the full model at 58%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 8 points.

Current Elo ratings1761 · 1764Shara Magomedov leads by 3 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1744 · 1608Israel Adesanya faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth26 · 17 fightsIsrael Adesanya has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesIsrael Adesanya 2 · 2 Shara MagomedovStrongest available gap: Sig. strikes landed per min toward Shara Magomedov.

What's at stake

Israel AdesanyaNow 1761 · #15 Middleweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1773

Loses by decision-12→ 1749

Shara MagomedovNow 1764 · #14 Middleweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1780

Loses by decision-16→ 1748

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Israel AdesanyavsShara Magomedov

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.03vs5.55

Sig. strike accuracy

48%vs63%

Sig. strike defense

56%vs45%

Submission average

0.14vs0

Finishing profile

Israel AdesanyaKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Shara MagomedovKO/TKO leads 71% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Israel AdesanyaShara Magomedov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.03Sig. strikes landed per min5.55

UFC middleweight average : 3.93

48Sig. strike accuracy63

UFC middleweight average : 48%

3.22Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.62

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

56Sig. strike defense45

UFC middleweight average : 52%

0.05Takedown average0

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

0Takedown accuracy0

UFC middleweight average : 29%

76Takedown defense73

UFC middleweight average : 59%

0.14Submission average0

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

16Wins by knockout12

0Wins by submission0

8Wins by decision5

3Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision1

Israel Adesanya vs Shara Magomedov is a scheduled Middleweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ADESANYA VS MAGOMEDOV. Israel Adesanya enters with a 24-6-0 record and Shara Magomedov enters with a 17-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.