Jinnosuke Kashimura vs Shinobu Ota

Nov 8, 2026 · RIZIN.TV

Combat Edge model forecast50%Jinnosuke Kashimura50%Shinobu OtaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 8, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLaLa arena TOKYO-BAY

BroadcastRIZIN.TV

Jinnosuke Kashimura12-6-0Jinnosuke Kashimura vs Shinobu OtaShinobu Ota8-6-0

Jinnosuke Kashimura12-6-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

12-6-0Record8-6-0

25Age32

5'8"Height5'5"

71"Reach64"

134 lbsWeight134 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Shinobu Ota8-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jinnosuke Kashimura owns a 25-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Jinnosuke Kashimura and Shinobu Ota across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jinnosuke KashimuraShinobu Ota

Recent form

Jinnosuke KashimuraL W W W W · +47 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Shinobu OtaL W L L W · -17 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Elo edge

Jinnosuke Kashimura1606-13 last move

Shinobu Ota1581-17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jinnosuke Kashimura#210 of 382 active Bantamweight fighters · 1606 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yuta Hashimoto (rated 1523 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Junya Hibino (rated 1499 at the time): -27.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +47 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #209 Bartosz Wójcikiewicz, 0 ahead of #211 Olivier Poisson.

Shinobu Ota#254 of 382 active Bantamweight fighters · 1581 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Juntaro Ushiku (rated 1649 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yuki Motoya (rated 1609 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -17 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #253 Magno Dias, 1 ahead of #255 Alan Benitez.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

50%Jinnosuke Kashimura50%Shinobu Ota

Model favoriteJinnosuke Kashimura

Elo baseline54% for Jinnosuke Kashimura

Matchup adjustment-4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jinnosuke KashimuraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Shinobu Ota is 50%, after Elo alone favored Jinnosuke Kashimura at 54%.

Current Elo ratings1606 · 1581Jinnosuke Kashimura leads by 25 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1544 · 1571Shinobu Ota faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth18 · 14 fightsJinnosuke Kashimura has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Jinnosuke KashimuraNow 1606 · #210 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+15→ 1621

Loses by decision-17→ 1589

Shinobu OtaNow 1581 · #254 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1598

Loses by decision-15→ 1566

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jinnosuke KashimuravsShinobu Ota

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Jinnosuke Kashimurasubmission leads 83% of wins

Shinobu OtaKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Danny SabatelloJinnosuke Kashimura: loss · KO (Punch) · Jul 17, 2026Shinobu Ota: loss · KO (Punches) · May 4, 2025

Hideo TokoroJinnosuke Kashimura: win · Submission (Anaconda Choke) · Mar 7, 2026Shinobu Ota: loss · Submission (Armbar) · Dec 31, 2020

Tale of the tape

Jinnosuke KashimuraShinobu Ota

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

1Wins by knockout4

10Wins by submission2

1Wins by decision2

3Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission2

3Losses by decision2

Jinnosuke Kashimura vs Shinobu Ota is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on RIZIN 55. Jinnosuke Kashimura enters with a 12-6-0 record and Shinobu Ota enters with a 8-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.