Juntaro Ushiku vs Kaiwen Li

Nov 8, 2026 · RIZIN.TV

Combat Edge model forecast35%Juntaro Ushiku65%Kaiwen LiFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 8, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLaLa arena TOKYO-BAY

BroadcastRIZIN.TV

Juntaro UshikuFighting Bull |24-14-1Juntaro Ushiku vs Kaiwen LiKaiwen LiThe Underdog |17-8-0

Juntaro UshikuFighting Bull24-14-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

24-14-1Record17-8-0

31Age31

5'7"Height5'9"

TBDReach69"

145 lbsWeight150 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Kaiwen LiThe Underdog17-8-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Kaiwen Li owns a 6-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Juntaro Ushiku and Kaiwen Li across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Juntaro UshikuKaiwen Li

Recent form

Juntaro UshikuL W L L L · -39 Elo last 5

LWLLL

Kaiwen LiW L W L W · +5 Elo last 5

WLWLW

Elo edge

Juntaro Ushiku1610-11 last move

Kaiwen Li1616+17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Juntaro Ushiku#238 of 451 active Featherweight fighters · 1610 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yutaka Saito (rated 1704 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Shinobu Ota (rated 1568 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -39 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #237 Erasyl Shukataev, 2 ahead of #239 Eli Evangelista.

Kaiwen Li#223 of 451 active Featherweight fighters · 1616 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Min Woo Kim (rated 1621 at the time): +18.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ryo Takagi (rated 1593 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #222 Santos Verdinez, 0 ahead of #224 Trevor Peek.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

35%Juntaro Ushiku65%Kaiwen Li

Model favoriteKaiwen Li

Elo baseline51% for Kaiwen Li

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Kaiwen LiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Kaiwen Li leads the full model at 65%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 14 points.

Current Elo ratings1610 · 1616Kaiwen Li leads by 6 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1623 · 1592Juntaro Ushiku faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth39 · 26 fightsJuntaro Ushiku has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Juntaro UshikuNow 1610 · #238 Featherweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1622

Loses by decision-12→ 1598

Kaiwen LiNow 1616 · #223 Featherweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1628

Loses by decision-12→ 1604

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Juntaro UshikuvsKaiwen Li

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Juntaro Ushikudecision leads 63% of wins

Kaiwen LiKO/TKO leads 59% of wins

Common opponents

Arata MizunoJuntaro Ushiku: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · May 4, 2026Kaiwen Li: win · KO (Punches) · Aug 11, 2026

Kouya KandaJuntaro Ushiku: win · Decision (Split) · Dec 12, 2021Kaiwen Li: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Aug 27, 2023

Tale of the tape

Juntaro UshikuKaiwen Li

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min3.73

UFC featherweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracy43

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min4.72

UFC featherweight average : 3.90

Not availableSig. strike defense54

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown average1.41

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracy0

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defense93

UFC featherweight average : 56%

Not availableSubmission average0

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

6Wins by knockout10

1Wins by submission1

15Wins by decision6

3Losses by knockout4

2Losses by submission1

7Losses by decision2

Juntaro Ushiku vs Kaiwen Li is a scheduled Featherweight fight on RIZIN 55. Juntaro Ushiku enters with a 24-14-1 record and Kaiwen Li enters with a 17-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.