Rikiya Matsuzawa vs Rio Kimura

Nov 8, 2026 · RIZIN.TV

Combat Edge model forecast30%Rikiya Matsuzawa70%Rio KimuraFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 8, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLaLa arena TOKYO-BAY

BroadcastRIZIN.TV

Rikiya Matsuzawa14-13-0Rikiya Matsuzawa vs Rio KimuraRio Kimura2-1-0

Rikiya Matsuzawa14-13-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

14-13-0Record2-1-0

33Age22

5'7"Height5'8"

TBDReachTBD

125 lbsWeight130 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Rio Kimura2-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rio Kimura owns a 4-point Elo edge (average). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Rikiya Matsuzawa and Rio Kimura across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Rikiya MatsuzawaRio Kimura

Recent form

Rikiya MatsuzawaL W W W L · +16 Elo last 5

LWWWL

Rio KimuraW W L · +32 Elo last 3

WWL

Elo edge

Rikiya Matsuzawa1528-15 last move

Rio Kimura1532+23 last move

Why they are ranked here

Rikiya Matsuzawa#190 of 229 active Flyweight fighters · 1528 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Riku Yoshida (rated 1500 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ryosuke Honda (rated 1497 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +16 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #189 Sanzhar Mansurov, 1 ahead of #191 Billy Sutherland.

Rio Kimura#316 of 382 active Bantamweight fighters · 1532 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Joe Hiramoto (rated 1524 at the time): +33.
Costliest loss: Lost to Riki Saito (rated 1500 at the time): -24.
Last 3 fights: 2 wins, 1 loss, +32 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #315 Murat Fakov, 1 ahead of #317 Seiya Inoue.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

30%Rikiya Matsuzawa70%Rio Kimura

Model favoriteRio Kimura

Elo baseline51% for Rio Kimura

Matchup adjustment+19 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Rio KimuraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Rio Kimura leads the full model at 70%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 19 points.

Current Elo ratings1528 · 1532Rio Kimura leads by 4 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1515 · 1525Rio Kimura faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth27 · 3 fightsRikiya Matsuzawa has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Rikiya MatsuzawaNow 1528 · #190 Flyweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1540

Loses by decision-12→ 1516

Rio KimuraNow 1532 · #316 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+24→ 1556

Loses by decision-24→ 1508

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Rikiya MatsuzawavsRio Kimura

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Rikiya MatsuzawaKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Rio Kimurasubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Rikiya MatsuzawaRio Kimura

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.46

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.63

7Wins by knockout0

5Wins by submission1

2Wins by decision1

5Losses by knockout0

6Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision1

Rikiya Matsuzawa vs Rio Kimura is a scheduled Flyweight fight on RIZIN 55. Rikiya Matsuzawa enters with a 14-13-0 record and Rio Kimura enters with a 2-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.