Shaqueme Rock vs Connor Hughes

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast47%Shaqueme Rock53%Connor HughesFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Shaqueme RockShem |11-3-1Shaqueme Rock vs Connor HughesConnor Hughes12-3-0

Shaqueme RockShem11-3-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-3-1Record12-3-0

32Age29

6'0"Height5'11"

73"Reach73"

161 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Connor Hughes12-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Shaqueme Rock owns a 6-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Shaqueme Rock and Connor Hughes across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Shaqueme RockConnor Hughes

Recent form

Shaqueme RockL L W W W · +2 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Connor HughesL L W W L · -38 Elo last 5

LLWWL

Elo edge

Shaqueme Rock1641-15 last move

Connor Hughes1635-28 last move

Why they are ranked here

Shaqueme Rock#177 of 387 active Lightweight fighters · 1641 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Harry Davies (rated 1474 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Nathan Kelly (rated 1500 at the time): -40.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +2 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #176 Lucas Brennan, 1 ahead of #178 Callum Connor.

Connor Hughes#191 of 387 active Lightweight fighters · 1635 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Anatolij Baal (rated 1582 at the time): +24.
Costliest loss: Lost to Dylan Tuke (rated 1451 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -38 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #190 Austin Halik, 1 ahead of #192 Landry Ward.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

47%Shaqueme Rock53%Connor Hughes

Model favoriteConnor Hughes

Elo baseline49% for Connor Hughes

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Connor HughesStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Connor Hughes is 53%, after Elo alone favored Shaqueme Rock at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1641 · 1635Shaqueme Rock leads by 6 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1530 · 1556Connor Hughes faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 16 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Shaqueme RockNow 1641 · #177 Lightweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1657

Loses by decision-16→ 1625

Connor HughesNow 1635 · #191 Lightweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1651

Loses by decision-16→ 1619

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Shaqueme RockvsConnor Hughes

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Shaqueme Rocksubmission leads 73% of wins

Connor HughesKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Shaqueme RockConnor Hughes

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.03Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

39Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

4.40Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

50Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

1Takedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

13Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

89Takedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0Submission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

2Wins by knockout6

8Wins by submission4

1Wins by decision2

1Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision1

Shaqueme Rock vs Connor Hughes is a scheduled Lightweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Shaqueme Rock enters with a 11-3-1 record and Connor Hughes enters with a 12-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.