Pouya Rahmani vs Oleg Popov

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast34%Pouya Rahmani66%Oleg PopovFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Pouya Rahmani5-0-0Pouya Rahmani vs Oleg PopovOleg Popov23-2-0

Pouya Rahmani5-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundR3

Time5:00

5-0-0Record23-2-0

34Age34

6'2"Height6'1"

79"Reach75.5"

250 lbsWeight250 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Oleg Popov23-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Oleg Popov owns a 132-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Pouya Rahmani and Oleg Popov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Pouya RahmaniOleg Popov

Recent form

Pouya RahmaniW W W W W · +141 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Oleg PopovW W W W L · +26 Elo last 5

WWWWL

Elo edge

Pouya Rahmani1670+29 last move

Oleg Popov1802+11 last move

Why they are ranked here

Pouya Rahmani#57 of 185 active Heavyweight fighters · 1670 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Slim Trabelsi (rated 1673 at the time): +34.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +141 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #56 Tallison Teixeira, 3 ahead of #58 Brando Peričić.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1563 Elo over the last 6 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Oleg Popov#7 of 185 active Heavyweight fighters · 1802 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Alexandr Romanov (rated 1759 at the time): +13.
Costliest loss: Lost to Denis Goltsov (rated 1783 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +26 Elo in total.
Next places: 7 points behind #6 Sergei Pavlovich, 1 ahead of #8 Phil De Fries.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

34%Pouya Rahmani66%Oleg Popov

Model favoriteOleg Popov

Elo baseline68% for Oleg Popov

Matchup adjustment-2 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Oleg PopovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Oleg Popov leads the full model at 66%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 3 points.

Current Elo ratings1670 · 1802Oleg Popov leads by 132 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1563 · 1643Oleg Popov faced the stronger recent schedule (6 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth6 · 25 fightsOleg Popov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Pouya RahmaniNow 1670 · #57 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+33→ 1703

Loses by decision-15→ 1655

Oleg PopovNow 1802 · #7 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+8→ 1810

Loses by decision-16→ 1786

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Pouya RahmanivsOleg Popov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Pouya Rahmanisubmission leads 60% of wins

Oleg Popovdecision leads 48% of wins

Common opponents

Karl WilliamsPouya Rahmani: win · Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) · Feb 7, 2026Oleg Popov: win · Decision (Split) · May 1, 2025

Yuriy FedorovPouya Rahmani: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · May 17, 2024Oleg Popov: win · TKO (Punches) · Nov 2, 2018

Tale of the tape

Pouya RahmaniOleg Popov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 0.45

2Wins by knockout9

3Wins by submission3

0Wins by decision11

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision1

Pouya Rahmani vs Oleg Popov is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Pouya Rahmani enters with a 5-0-0 record and Oleg Popov enters with a 23-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.