Patrick Habirora vs Omar El Dafrawy

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast58%Patrick Habirora42%Omar El DafrawyFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Patrick HabiroraThe Belgian Bomber |9-0-0Patrick Habirora vs Omar El DafrawyOmar El DafrawyGodFirst |16-6-0

Patrick HabiroraThe Belgian Bomber9-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-0-0Record16-6-0

25Age31

6'0"Height5'10"

75"Reach74"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Omar El DafrawyGodFirst16-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Patrick Habirora owns a 66-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Patrick Habirora and Omar El Dafrawy across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Patrick HabiroraOmar El Dafrawy

Recent form

Patrick HabiroraW W W W W · +126 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Omar El DafrawyW W L W W · +46 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Patrick Habirora1725+32 last move

Omar El Dafrawy1659+17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Patrick Habirora#48 of 331 active Welterweight fighters · 1725 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Benson Henderson (rated 1737 at the time): +32.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +126 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #47 Kaik Brito, 1 ahead of #49 Daniil Donchenko.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1556 Elo over the last 9 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Omar El Dafrawy#12 of 73 active Catchweight fighters · 1659 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jarrah Hussein Al-Silawi (rated 1698 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Florim Zendeli (rated 1658 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +46 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #11 Marcirley Alves, 1 ahead of #13 Aleksandr Chizov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

58%Patrick Habirora42%Omar El Dafrawy

Model favoritePatrick Habirora

Elo baseline59% for Patrick Habirora

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Patrick HabiroraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Patrick Habirora leads the full model at 58%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 2 points.

Current Elo ratings1725 · 1659Patrick Habirora leads by 66 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1556 · 1560Omar El Dafrawy faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 22 fightsOmar El Dafrawy has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Patrick HabiroraNow 1725 · #48 Welterweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1744

Loses by decision-29→ 1696

Omar El DafrawyNow 1659 · #12 Catchweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1678

Loses by decision-13→ 1646

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Patrick HabiroravsOmar El Dafrawy

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Patrick HabiroraKO/TKO leads 89% of wins

Omar El DafrawyKO/TKO leads 56% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Patrick HabiroraOmar El Dafrawy

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

8Wins by knockout9

0Wins by submission3

1Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision5

Patrick Habirora vs Omar El Dafrawy is a scheduled Welterweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Patrick Habirora enters with a 9-0-0 record and Omar El Dafrawy enters with a 16-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.