Lewis McGrillen vs

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast71%Lewis McGrillen29%Nawras AbzakhFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Lewis McGrillenThe McGrizzla |13-2-0Lewis McGrillen vs Nawras AbzakhThe Honey Badger |15-6-0

Lewis McGrillenThe McGrizzla13-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

13-2-0Record15-6-0

25Age34

5'6"Height5'10"

68"Reach68"

135 lbsWeight135 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Nawras AbzakhThe Honey Badger15-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Lewis McGrillen owns a 46-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Lewis McGrillen and Nawras Abzakh across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Lewis McGrillenNawras Abzakh

Recent form

Lewis McGrillenW L W W W · +31 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Nawras AbzakhW W W L W · +54 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Elo edge

Lewis McGrillen1678+13 last move

Nawras Abzakh1632+19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Lewis McGrillen#88 of 315 active Bantamweight fighters · 1678 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Romero dos Reis (rated 1500 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Weslley Maia (rated 1467 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +31 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #87 Lasha Abramishvili, 1 ahead of #89 Viet Anh Do.

Nawras Abzakh#157 of 315 active Bantamweight fighters · 1632 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Islam Youssef (rated 1613 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Victor Nunes (rated 1482 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +54 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #156 Murad Kalamov, 1 ahead of #158 Joji Goto.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

71%Lewis McGrillen29%Nawras Abzakh

Model favoriteLewis McGrillen

Elo baseline57% for Lewis McGrillen

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Lewis McGrillenStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Lewis McGrillen leads the full model at 71%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 15 points.

Current Elo ratings1678 · 1632Lewis McGrillen leads by 46 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1526 · 1533Nawras Abzakh faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth15 · 21 fightsNawras Abzakh has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Lewis McGrillenNow 1678 · #88 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1692

Loses by decision-18→ 1660

Nawras AbzakhNow 1632 · #157 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1650

Loses by decision-14→ 1618

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Lewis McGrillenvsNawras Abzakh

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Lewis McGrillenKO/TKO leads 77% of wins

Nawras Abzakhsubmission leads 53% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Lewis McGrillenNawras Abzakh

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.71

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

10Wins by knockout2

1Wins by submission8

2Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout3

1Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision3

Lewis McGrillen vs is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Lewis McGrillen enters with a 13-2-0 record and Nawras Abzakh enters with a 15-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.