Vadim Nemkov vs Sergey Bilostenniy

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast57%Vadim Nemkov43%Sergey BilostenniyFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionPFL Heavyweight World Title

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Vadim Nemkov20-2-0Vadim Nemkov vs Sergey BilostenniySergey Bilostenniy15-4-0

Vadim Nemkov20-2-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

20-2-0Record15-4-0

34Age31

6'0"Height6'1"

76"Reach75"

242 lbsWeight262 lbs

PFL Heavyweight World TitleWeight ClassPFL Heavyweight World Title

Sergey Bilostenniy15-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Vadim Nemkov owns a 104-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Vadim Nemkov and Sergey Bilostenniy across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Vadim NemkovSergey Bilostenniy

Recent form

Vadim NemkovW W W W W · +68 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Sergey BilostenniyW W L W W · +59 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Vadim Nemkov1820+14 last move

Sergey Bilostenniy1716+19 last move

Why they are ranked here

Vadim Nemkov#5 of 185 active Heavyweight fighters · 1820 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ryan Bader (rated 1846 at the time): +27.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +68 Elo in total.
Next places: 11 points behind #4 Ciryl Gane, 11 ahead of #6 Sergei Pavlovich.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1710 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Sergey Bilostenniy#32 of 185 active Heavyweight fighters · 1716 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Roggers Souza (rated 1545 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Valentin Moldavsky (rated 1682 at the time): -17.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +59 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #31 Alexander Soldatkin, 1 ahead of #33 Ruslan Shamilov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

57%Vadim Nemkov43%Sergey Bilostenniy

Model favoriteVadim Nemkov

Elo baseline65% for Vadim Nemkov

Matchup adjustment-8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Vadim NemkovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Vadim Nemkov leads the full model at 57%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 8 points.

Current Elo ratings1820 · 1716Vadim Nemkov leads by 104 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1710 · 1624Vadim Nemkov faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth22 · 19 fightsVadim Nemkov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Vadim NemkovNow 1820 · #5 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+11→ 1831

Loses by decision-21→ 1799

Sergey BilostenniyNow 1716 · #32 Heavyweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1737

Loses by decision-11→ 1705

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Vadim NemkovvsSergey Bilostenniy

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Vadim NemkovKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Sergey BilostenniyKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

Renan FerreiraVadim Nemkov: win · Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) · Dec 13, 2025Sergey Bilostenniy: win · TKO (Punches) · May 2, 2026

Bruno CappelozzaVadim Nemkov: win · Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) · Feb 24, 2024Sergey Bilostenniy: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Apr 4, 2024

Tale of the tape

Vadim NemkovSergey Bilostenniy

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.77

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 1.40

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 53%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC heavyweight average : 0.45

10Wins by knockout10

6Wins by submission1

4Wins by decision4

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission2

1Losses by decision1

Vadim Nemkov vs Sergey Bilostenniy is a scheduled PFL Heavyweight World Title fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Vadim Nemkov enters with a 20-2-0 record and Sergey Bilostenniy enters with a 15-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.