Alexei Pergande vs Akhmed Magomedov

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast57%Alexei Pergande43%Akhmed MagomedovFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Alexei PergandeRussian DNA |8-0-0Alexei Pergande vs Akhmed MagomedovAkhmed Magomedov10-2-0

Alexei PergandeRussian DNA8-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-0-0Record10-2-0

25Age30

5'7"Height5'8"

74"Reach68"

145 lbsWeight145 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Akhmed Magomedov10-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Akhmed Magomedov owns a 9-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Alexei Pergande and Akhmed Magomedov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Alexei PergandeAkhmed Magomedov

Recent form

Alexei PergandeW W W W W · +99 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Akhmed MagomedovL W L W W · +10 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Elo edge

Alexei Pergande1672+29 last move

Akhmed Magomedov1681-10 last move

Why they are ranked here

Alexei Pergande#118 of 424 active Featherweight fighters · 1672 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Julio Arce (rated 1723 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +99 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #117 Levy Saúl Marroquín, 0 ahead of #119 Daniel Santos.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1522 Elo over the last 8 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Akhmed Magomedov#99 of 424 active Featherweight fighters · 1681 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yuriy Odin (rated 1500 at the time): +23.
Costliest loss: Lost to Henry Corrales (rated 1636 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +10 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #98 Kurtis Campbell, 0 ahead of #100 Shane Collins.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

57%Alexei Pergande43%Akhmed Magomedov

Model favoriteAlexei Pergande

Elo baseline49% for Alexei Pergande

Matchup adjustment+8 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alexei PergandeStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Alexei Pergande is 57%, after Elo alone favored Akhmed Magomedov at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1672 · 1681Akhmed Magomedov leads by 9 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1522 · 1556Akhmed Magomedov faced the stronger recent schedule (8 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth8 · 13 fightsAkhmed Magomedov has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Alexei PergandeNow 1672 · #118 Featherweight

Wins by decision+25→ 1697

Loses by decision-23→ 1649

Akhmed MagomedovNow 1681 · #99 Featherweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1697

Loses by decision-16→ 1665

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Alexei PergandevsAkhmed Magomedov

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Alexei Pergandedecision leads 63% of wins

Akhmed Magomedovsubmission leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Alexei PergandeAkhmed Magomedov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.90

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 56%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

0Wins by knockout0

3Wins by submission6

5Wins by decision4

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision2

Alexei Pergande vs Akhmed Magomedov is a scheduled Lightweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Alexei Pergande enters with a 8-0-0 record and Akhmed Magomedov enters with a 10-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.