Takumi Hamada vs Sho Sekihara

Nov 8, 2026 · RIZIN.TV

Combat Edge model forecast49%Takumi Hamada51%Sho SekiharaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 8, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLaLa arena TOKYO-BAY

BroadcastRIZIN.TV

Takumi Hamada7-0-0Takumi Hamada vs Sho SekiharaSho Sekihara14-5-0

Takumi Hamada7-0-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

7-0-0Record14-5-0

31Age33

5'5"Height5'8"

TBDReachTBD

125 lbsWeight130 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Sho Sekihara14-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Takumi Hamada owns a 19-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Takumi Hamada and Sho Sekihara across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Takumi HamadaSho Sekihara

Recent form

Takumi HamadaW W W W W · +92 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Sho SekiharaW L W L W · -9 Elo last 5

WLWLW

Elo edge

Takumi Hamada1643+22 last move

Sho Sekihara1624+10 last move

Why they are ranked here

Takumi Hamada#74 of 228 active Flyweight fighters · 1643 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Naruto Date (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +92 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #73 Akhmed Amaev, 0 ahead of #75 Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1498 Elo over the last 7 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Sho Sekihara#174 of 379 active Bantamweight fighters · 1624 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Takahiro Kuniyoshi (rated 1500 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yutaro Muramoto (rated 1496 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, -9 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #173 Reda Abdellaoui, 1 ahead of #175 Murad Ibragimov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

49%Takumi Hamada51%Sho Sekihara

Model favoriteSho Sekihara

Elo baseline47% for Sho Sekihara

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Sho SekiharaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Sho Sekihara is 51%, after Elo alone favored Takumi Hamada at 53%.

Current Elo ratings1643 · 1624Takumi Hamada leads by 19 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1498 · 1511Sho Sekihara faced the stronger recent schedule (7 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth7 · 19 fightsSho Sekihara has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Takumi HamadaNow 1643 · #74 Flyweight

Wins by decision+23→ 1666

Loses by decision-25→ 1618

Sho SekiharaNow 1624 · #174 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1641

Loses by decision-15→ 1609

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Takumi HamadavsSho Sekihara

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Takumi Hamadadecision leads 57% of wins

Sho Sekiharadecision leads 71% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Takumi HamadaSho Sekihara

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.85

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.46

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.63

2Wins by knockout3

1Wins by submission0

4Wins by decision10

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision4

Takumi Hamada vs Sho Sekihara is a scheduled Flyweight fight on RIZIN 55. Takumi Hamada enters with a 7-0-0 record and Sho Sekihara enters with a 14-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.