Welisson Paiva vs Igor Włodarczyk

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenuePodpromie Hall

BroadcastKSW TV

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on KSW TV.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 4:00 AM
Your time

Welisson PaivaMao de Pedra |12-5-1Welisson Paiva vs Igor WłodarczykIgor Włodarczyk3-0-0

Welisson PaivaMao de Pedra12-5-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

12-5-1Record3-0-0

24AgeTBD

5'10"Height6'1"

TBDReachTBD

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Igor Włodarczyk3-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Igor Włodarczyk owns a 9-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Welisson Paiva and Igor Włodarczyk across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Welisson PaivaIgor Włodarczyk

Recent form

Welisson PaivaL L W W D · -10 Elo last 5

LLWWD

Igor WłodarczykW W W · +74 Elo last 3

WWW

Elo edge

Welisson Paiva1565-21 last move

Igor Włodarczyk1574+25 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

55%Welisson Paiva45%Igor Włodarczyk

Model favoriteWelisson Paiva

Elo baseline49% for Welisson Paiva

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Welisson PaivaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Welisson Paiva is 55%, after Elo alone favored Igor Włodarczyk at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1565 · 1574Igor Włodarczyk leads by 9 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1530 · 1510Welisson Paiva faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 3 fightsWelisson Paiva has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Welisson PaivavsIgor Włodarczyk

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Welisson PaivaKO/TKO leads 67% of wins

Igor Włodarczyksubmission leads 67% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Welisson PaivaIgor Włodarczyk

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 53%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC lightweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC lightweight average : 59%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

8Wins by knockout0

0Wins by submission2

4Wins by decision1

4Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Welisson Paiva vs Igor Włodarczyk is a scheduled Lightweight fight on KSW 122 RZESZOW : YAKYMENKO VS MORELLI. Welisson Paiva enters with a 12-5-1 record and Igor Włodarczyk enters with a 3-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.