Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara

Oct 17, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast58%Jamey-Lyn Horth42%Katlyn CerminaraFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Jamey-Lyn Horth9-3-0Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn CerminaraKatlyn CerminaraBlonde Fighter |18-6-0

Jamey-Lyn Horth9-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

9-3-0Record18-6-0

36Age37

5'7"Height5'9"

66"Reach68"

126 lbsWeight125 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Katlyn CerminaraBlonde Fighter18-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Katlyn Cerminara owns a 59-point Elo edge (good). Jamey-Lyn Horth shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Jamey-Lyn Horth and Katlyn Cerminara across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jamey-Lyn HorthKatlyn Cerminara

Recent form

Jamey-Lyn HorthL W W L W · +28 Elo last 5

LWWLW

Katlyn CerminaraL L W W W · +4 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Elo edge

Jamey-Lyn Horth1645-17 last move

Katlyn Cerminara1704-16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jamey-Lyn Horth#28 of 75 active Women Flyweight fighters · 1645 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jade Masson-Wong (rated 1546 at the time): +26.
Costliest loss: Lost to Veronica Hardy (rated 1550 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +28 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #27 Jennifer Maia, 2 ahead of #29 Veronika Smolková.

Katlyn CerminaraNot on the active ladder · 1704 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Cynthia Calvillo (rated 1686 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jéssica Andrade (rated 1663 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +4 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1665, not 1704: 39 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

58%Jamey-Lyn Horth42%Katlyn Cerminara

Model favoriteJamey-Lyn Horth

Elo baseline42% for Jamey-Lyn Horth

Matchup adjustment+16 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jamey-Lyn HorthStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Jamey-Lyn Horth is 58%, after Elo alone favored Katlyn Cerminara at 58%.

Current Elo ratings1645 · 1704Katlyn Cerminara leads by 59 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1590 · 1678Katlyn Cerminara faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth12 · 25 fightsKatlyn Cerminara has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesJamey-Lyn Horth 4 · 0 Katlyn CerminaraStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Jamey-Lyn Horth.

What's at stake

Jamey-Lyn HorthNow 1645 · #28 Women Flyweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1664

Loses by decision-13→ 1632

Katlyn CerminaraNow 1704

Wins by decision+10→ 1714

Loses by decision-14→ 1690

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jamey-Lyn HorthvsKatlyn Cerminara

Takedown average

0.98vs0.31

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.64vs4.48

Takedown defense

81%vs50%

Sig. strike accuracy

48%vs35%

Finishing profile

Jamey-Lyn HorthKO/TKO leads 44% of wins

Katlyn Cerminaradecision leads 83% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Jamey-Lyn HorthKatlyn Cerminara

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.80Sig. strikes landed per min4.58

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

48Sig. strike accuracy35

UFC flyweight average : 44%

2.64Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.48

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

64Sig. strike defense62

UFC flyweight average : 55%

0.98Takedown average0.31

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

0Takedown accuracy0

UFC flyweight average : 26%

81Takedown defense50

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0.16Submission average0.31

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

4Wins by knockout2

2Wins by submission1

3Wins by decision15

0Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision4

Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara is a scheduled Flyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Jamey-Lyn Horth enters with a 9-3-0 record and Katlyn Cerminara enters with a 18-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.