Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Tanner BoserThe Bulldozer |22-11-1Tanner Boser vs Jhonata DinizJhonata Diniz9-2-0

Tanner BoserThe Bulldozer22-11-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

22-11-1Record9-2-0

35Age35

6'2"Height6'4"

75"Reach 79"

203 lbsWeight255 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Jhonata Diniz9-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jhonata Diniz owns a 14-point Elo edge (good). Tanner Boser shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Tanner Boser and Jhonata Diniz across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz

Recent form

Tanner BoserL W W L L · -25 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Jhonata DinizL W L W W · +31 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Elo edge

Tanner Boser1658-16 last move

Jhonata Diniz1672-18 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

42%Tanner Boser58%Jhonata Diniz

Model favoriteJhonata Diniz

Elo baseline52% for Jhonata Diniz

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jhonata DinizStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jhonata Diniz leads the full model at 58%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1658 · 1672Jhonata Diniz leads by 14 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1635 · 1595Tanner Boser faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth34 · 11 fightsTanner Boser has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesTanner Boser 3 · 1 Jhonata DinizStrongest available gap: Sig. strikes landed per min toward Tanner Boser.

Stat advantages

Tanner BoservsJhonata Diniz

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.82vs3.89

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3vs3.62

Sig. strike accuracy

54%vs56%

Sig. strike defense

58%vs57%

Finishing profile

Tanner BoserKO/TKO leads 55% of wins

Jhonata DinizKO/TKO leads 78% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Tanner BoserJhonata Diniz

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.82Sig. strikes landed per min3.89

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00

54Sig. strike accuracy56

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

3Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.62

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.73

58Sig. strike defense57

UFC light heavyweight average : 51%

0Takedown average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.37

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 27%

70Takedown defense70

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

0Submission average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

12Wins by knockout7

2Wins by submission0

8Wins by decision2

3Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission0

8Losses by decision0

Tanner Boser vs Jhonata Diniz is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Tanner Boser enters with a 22-11-1 record and Jhonata Diniz enters with a 9-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.