Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Mandel NalloRat Garbage / Mango |14-4-0Mandel Nallo vs Nate LandwehrNate LandwehrThe Train |18-8-0

Mandel NalloRat Garbage / Mango14-4-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

14-4-0Record18-8-0

37Age38

6'0"Height5'9"

75"Reach72"

155 lbsWeight145 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Nate LandwehrThe Train18-8-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Nate Landwehr owns a 14-point Elo edge (solid). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Mandel Nallo and Nate Landwehr across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Mandel NalloNate Landwehr

Recent form

Mandel NalloL W W W W · +27 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Nate LandwehrL L L W L · -51 Elo last 5

LLLWL

Elo edge

Mandel Nallo1634-19 last move

Nate Landwehr1648-15 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

49%Mandel Nallo51%Nate Landwehr

Model favoriteNate Landwehr

Elo baseline52% for Nate Landwehr

Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Nate LandwehrStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Nate Landwehr leads the full model at 51%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1634 · 1648Nate Landwehr leads by 14 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1525 · 1677Nate Landwehr faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth18 · 24 fightsNate Landwehr has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesMandel Nallo 2 · 2 Nate LandwehrStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Nate Landwehr.

Stat advantages

Mandel NallovsNate Landwehr

Takedown average

0vs0.73

Submission average

0vs0.73

Sig. strikes landed per min

8.26vs5.55

Takedown defense

100%vs72%

Finishing profile

Mandel NalloKO/TKO leads 57% of wins

Nate LandwehrKO/TKO leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Mandel NalloNate Landwehr

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

8.26Sig. strikes landed per min5.55

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

58Sig. strike accuracy46

UFC lightweight average : 46%

5.03Sig. strikes absorbed per min5.96

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

54Sig. strike defense51

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0Takedown average0.73

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

0Takedown accuracy0

UFC lightweight average : 29%

100Takedown defense72

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0Submission average0.73

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

8Wins by knockout9

6Wins by submission2

0Wins by decision7

3Losses by knockout5

1Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision2

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Mandel Nallo enters with a 14-4-0 record and Nate Landwehr enters with a 18-8-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.