UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS

John Castañeda vs Alatengheili

EventUFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS
DateSep 26, 2026
DivisionBantamweight
StatusScheduled
VenueMeta APEX
BroadcastPARAMOUNT+
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET)
Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe
Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 8:00 AM

John Castañeda vs Alatengheili is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS . John Castañeda enters with a 21-8-1 record and Alatengheili enters with a 17-10-2 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

John Castañeda vs Alatengheili quick answers

When is John Castañeda vs Alatengheili?

John Castañeda vs Alatengheili is listed for UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS on Sep 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST.

What event is John Castañeda vs Alatengheili on?

John Castañeda vs Alatengheili is listed on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS .

What are the records for John Castañeda vs Alatengheili?

John Castañeda enters with a 21-8-1 record and Alatengheili enters with a 17-10-2 record.

What division is John Castañeda vs Alatengheili?

John Castañeda vs Alatengheili is listed as a Bantamweight fight.

John CastañedaSexi Mexi |21-8-1John Castañeda vs AlatengheiliAlatengheiliThe Mongolian Knight |17-10-2
usJohn CastañedaSexi Mexi21-8-1John Castañedaus

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
21-8-1Record17-10-2
34Age34
5'7"Height5'6"
71"Reach66"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight
cnAlatengheiliThe Mongolian Knight17-10-2cnAlatengheili
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

John Castañeda owns a 88-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare John Castañeda and Alatengheili across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

John CastañedaAlatengheili
1600165017002023202420252026

Recent form

John CastañedaD L L W W · +9 Elo last 5
DLLWW
AlatengheiliL W L W W · +27 Elo last 5
LWLWW

Elo edge

John Castañeda1697-2 last move
Alatengheili1609-9 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
78%John Castañeda22%Alatengheili
Model favoriteJohn Castañeda
Elo baseline62% for John Castañeda
Matchup adjustment+16 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

John Castañeda leads the full model at 78%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 16 points.

Current Elo ratings1697 · 1609John Castañeda leads by 88 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1668 · 1638John Castañeda faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth28 · 29 fightsAlatengheili has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesJohn Castañeda 2 · 2 AlatengheiliStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Alatengheili.

Stat advantages

John CastañedavsAlatengheili
Takedown accuracy
0%vs9%
Sig. strikes landed per min
4.95vs2.82
Sig. strike accuracy
51%vs33%
Takedown average
1.49vs1.74

Finishing profile

John CastañedaKO/TKO leads 38% of wins
Alatengheilidecision leads 53% of wins

Tale of the tape

John CastañedaAlatengheili
4.95Sig. strikes landed per min2.82
UFC bantamweight average : 3.72
51Sig. strike accuracy33
UFC bantamweight average : 45%
5.07Sig. strikes absorbed per min5.12
UFC bantamweight average : 3.76
54Sig. strike defense57
UFC bantamweight average : 54%
1.49Takedown average1.74
UFC bantamweight average : 1.50
0Takedown accuracy9
UFC bantamweight average : 30%
76Takedown defense75
UFC bantamweight average : 61%
0.11Submission average0
UFC bantamweight average : 0.50
8Wins by knockout5
6Wins by submission3
7Wins by decision9
2Losses by knockout3
0Losses by submission1
6Losses by decision6

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