Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Martinez

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast31%Abubakar Nurmagomedov69%David MartinezFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Abubakar Nurmagomedov17-4-1Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David MartinezDavid MartinezThe Smiling Assassin |17-6-0

Abubakar Nurmagomedov17-4-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

17-4-1Record17-6-0

36Age33

5'11"Height5'9"

72"Reach71"

170 lbsWeight176 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

David MartinezThe Smiling Assassin17-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Abubakar Nurmagomedov owns a 47-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Abubakar Nurmagomedov and David Martinez across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Abubakar NurmagomedovDavid Martinez

Recent form

Abubakar NurmagomedovL W W L D · -8 Elo last 5

LWWLD

David MartinezW W W W W · +80 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Abubakar Nurmagomedov1688-13 last move

David Martinez1641+22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Abubakar NurmagomedovNot on the active ladder · 1688 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Gadzhi Omargadzhiev (rated 1697 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Pavel Kusch (rated 1531 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 2 losses, -8 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1622, not 1688: 66 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

David Martinez#20 of 73 active Catchweight fighters · 1641 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Giannis Bachar (rated 1662 at the time): +22.
Costliest loss: Lost to Murad Guseinov (rated 1500 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +80 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #19 Carlos Tardio, 0 ahead of #21 Giannis Bachar.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

31%Abubakar Nurmagomedov69%David Martinez

Model favoriteDavid Martinez

Elo baseline43% for David Martinez

Matchup adjustment+26 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back David MartinezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: David Martinez is 69%, after Elo alone favored Abubakar Nurmagomedov at 57%.

Current Elo ratings1688 · 1641Abubakar Nurmagomedov leads by 47 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1608 · 1522Abubakar Nurmagomedov faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth22 · 23 fightsDavid Martinez has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Abubakar NurmagomedovNow 1688

Wins by decision+14→ 1702

Loses by decision-18→ 1670

David MartinezNow 1641 · #20 Catchweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1659

Loses by decision-14→ 1627

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Abubakar NurmagomedovvsDavid Martinez

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Abubakar Nurmagomedovdecision leads 41% of wins

David Martinezsubmission leads 41% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Abubakar NurmagomedovDavid Martinez

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.78Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

53Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 46%

2.61Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC welterweight average : 3.86

65Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 53%

1.25Takedown averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

6Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC welterweight average : 30%

89Takedown defenseNot available

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0Submission averageNot available

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

6Wins by knockout3

4Wins by submission7

7Wins by decision7

1Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission2

1Losses by decision2

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs David Martinez is a scheduled Welterweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Abubakar Nurmagomedov enters with a 17-4-1 record and David Martinez enters with a 17-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.