Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna

Nov 21, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast24%Aleksandre Topuria76%Santiago LunaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionBantamweight

StatusScheduled

VenueABHA Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Aleksandre TopuriaEl Cazador |7-1-0Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago LunaSantiago LunaBorder Boy |8-1-0

Aleksandre TopuriaEl Cazador7-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

7-1-0Record8-1-0

30Age22

5'7"Height5'8"

68"Reach74"

139 lbsWeight145 lbs

BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight

Santiago LunaBorder Boy8-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Santiago Luna owns a 51-point Elo edge (good). Santiago Luna shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Aleksandre Topuria and Santiago Luna across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Aleksandre TopuriaSantiago Luna

Recent form

Aleksandre TopuriaW W W W W · +139 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Santiago LunaL W W W W · +59 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Aleksandre Topuria1610+32 last move

Santiago Luna1661-22 last move

Why they are ranked here

Aleksandre Topuria#186 of 316 active Bantamweight fighters · 1610 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Bekzat Almakhan (rated 1699 at the time): +32.
Costliest loss: Lost to Ivo Ivanov (rated 1500 at the time): -29.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +139 Elo in total.
Next places: 2 points behind #185 Liam Gittins, 0 ahead of #187 John Garza.

Santiago Luna#112 of 316 active Bantamweight fighters · 1661 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Einar Karel González (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Bryce Mitchell (rated 1761 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +59 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #111 Movsar Ibragimov, 0 ahead of #113 Yunus Evloev.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

24%Aleksandre Topuria76%Santiago Luna

Model favoriteSantiago Luna

Elo baseline57% for Santiago Luna

Matchup adjustment+19 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Santiago LunaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Santiago Luna leads the full model at 76%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 19 points.

Current Elo ratings1610 · 1661Santiago Luna leads by 51 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1534 · 1545Santiago Luna faced the stronger recent schedule (6 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth6 · 9 fightsSantiago Luna has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAleksandre Topuria 1 · 3 Santiago LunaStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Santiago Luna.

What's at stake

Aleksandre TopuriaNow 1610 · #186 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+27→ 1637

Loses by decision-21→ 1589

Santiago LunaNow 1661 · #112 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+21→ 1682

Loses by decision-27→ 1634

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Aleksandre TopuriavsSantiago Luna

Submission average

0vs0.84

Takedown average

1vs4.21

Sig. strikes landed per min

2.73vs8.20

Takedown defense

100%vs50%

Finishing profile

Aleksandre TopuriaKO/TKO leads 43% of wins

Santiago Lunasubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Aleksandre TopuriaSantiago Luna

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.73Sig. strikes landed per min8.20

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

52Sig. strike accuracy55

UFC featherweight average : 46%

2.53Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.82

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

70Sig. strike defense72

UFC featherweight average : 54%

1Takedown average4.21

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

50Takedown accuracy83

UFC featherweight average : 29%

100Takedown defense50

UFC featherweight average : 55%

0Submission average0.84

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

3Wins by knockout3

2Wins by submission4

2Wins by decision1

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision0

Aleksandre Topuria vs Santiago Luna is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLING. Aleksandre Topuria enters with a 7-1-0 record and Santiago Luna enters with a 8-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.