Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega

Nov 21, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast54%Dan Hooker46%Brian OrtegaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueABHA Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Dan HookerThe Hangman |24-15-0Dan Hooker vs Brian OrtegaBrian OrtegaT-City |16-5-0

Dan HookerThe Hangman24-15-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

24-15-0Record16-5-0

36Age35

6'0"Height5'9"

75"Reach69"

156 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Brian OrtegaT-City16-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Brian Ortega owns a 2-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Dan Hooker and Brian Ortega across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Dan HookerBrian Ortega

Recent form

Dan HookerL L L W W · -13 Elo last 5

LLLWW

Brian OrtegaL L W L L · -38 Elo last 5

LLWLL

Elo edge

Dan Hooker1713-11 last move

Brian Ortega1715-11 last move

Why they are ranked here

Dan Hooker#56 of 387 active Lightweight fighters · 1713 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Nasrat Haqparast (rated 1724 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Islam Makhachev (rated 1815 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #55 Ylies Djiroun, 1 ahead of #57 Manuel Torres.

Brian Ortega#51 of 370 active Featherweight fighters · 1715 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Frankie Edgar (rated 1754 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Yair Rodriguez (rated 1725 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 1 win, 4 losses, -38 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #50 Alejandro Flores, 0 ahead of #52 Elbek Alyshov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

54%Dan Hooker46%Brian Ortega

Model favoriteDan Hooker

Elo baseline50% for Dan Hooker

Matchup adjustment+4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Dan HookerStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Dan Hooker is 54%, after Elo alone favored Brian Ortega at 50%.

Current Elo ratings1713 · 1715Brian Ortega leads by 2 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1764 · 1776Brian Ortega faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth32 · 18 fightsDan Hooker has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesDan Hooker 2 · 2 Brian OrtegaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Dan Hooker.

What's at stake

Dan HookerNow 1713 · #56 Lightweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1725

Loses by decision-12→ 1701

Brian OrtegaNow 1715 · #51 Featherweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1731

Loses by decision-16→ 1699

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Dan HookervsBrian Ortega

Takedown accuracy

9%vs2%

Submission average

0.56vs0.93

Takedown defense

77%vs55%

Takedown average

0.68vs0.93

Finishing profile

Dan HookerKO/TKO leads 46% of wins

Brian Ortegasubmission leads 50% of wins

Common opponents

Yair Rodriguez Dan Hooker: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Oct 3, 2015 Brian Ortega: win · Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) · Feb 24, 2024

Yair Rodriguez Dan Hooker: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Oct 3, 2015 Brian Ortega: loss · TKO (Shoulder Injury) · Jul 16, 2022

Tale of the tape

Dan HookerBrian Ortega

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.82Sig. strikes landed per min3.84

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

49Sig. strike accuracy37

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.94Sig. strikes absorbed per min6.38

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

49Sig. strike defense49

UFC lightweight average : 53%

0.68Takedown average0.93

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

9Takedown accuracy2

UFC lightweight average : 28%

77Takedown defense55

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.56Submission average0.93

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

11Wins by knockout3

7Wins by submission8

6Wins by decision5

5Losses by knockout2

4Losses by submission0

6Losses by decision3

Dan Hooker vs Brian Ortega is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLING. Dan Hooker enters with a 24-15-0 record and Brian Ortega enters with a 16-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.