Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa

Nov 21, 2026 · Paramount+

Combat Edge model forecast40%Amir Albazi60%Alessandro CostaFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 21, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueABHA Arena

BroadcastParamount+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 21, 2026 — watch on Paramount+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Amir AlbaziThe Prince |17-3-0Amir Albazi vs Alessandro CostaAlessandro CostaNono |17-5-0

Amir AlbaziThe Prince17-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

17-3-0Record17-5-0

32Age30

5'5"Height5'5"

68"Reach67"

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Alessandro CostaNono17-5-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Alessandro Costa owns a 1-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Amir Albazi and Alessandro Costa across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Amir AlbaziAlessandro Costa

Recent form

Amir AlbaziL L W W W · +17 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Alessandro CostaW W W L W · +46 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Elo edge

Amir Albazi1704-12 last move

Alessandro Costa1705+16 last move

Why they are ranked here

Amir Albazi#21 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1704 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Malcolm Gordon (rated 1638 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jose Torres (rated 1667 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +17 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #20 Alessandro Costa, 1 ahead of #22 Christian Natividad.

Alessandro Costa#20 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1705 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kevin Borjas (rated 1648 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Alden Coria (rated 1616 at the time): -23.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +46 Elo in total.
Next places: 6 points behind #19 Brandon Royval, 1 ahead of #21 Amir Albazi.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

40%Amir Albazi60%Alessandro Costa

Model favoriteAlessandro Costa

Elo baseline50% for Alessandro Costa

Matchup adjustment+10 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Alessandro CostaStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Alessandro Costa leads the full model at 60%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 10 points.

Current Elo ratings1704 · 1705Alessandro Costa leads by 1 rating point.

Recent opponent quality1641 · 1620Amir Albazi faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 22 fightsAlessandro Costa has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesAmir Albazi 2 · 2 Alessandro CostaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Amir Albazi.

What's at stake

Amir AlbaziNow 1704 · #21 Flyweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1720

Loses by decision-16→ 1688

Alessandro CostaNow 1705 · #20 Flyweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1721

Loses by decision-16→ 1689

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Amir AlbazivsAlessandro Costa

Takedown accuracy

32%vs0%

Takedown average

1.39vs0.77

Takedown defense

50%vs86%

Sig. strikes landed per min

2.72vs3.86

Finishing profile

Amir Albazisubmission leads 53% of wins

Alessandro CostaKO/TKO leads 41% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Amir AlbaziAlessandro Costa

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.72Sig. strikes landed per min3.86

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

35Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC flyweight average : 44%

3.71Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.70

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

62Sig. strike defense57

UFC flyweight average : 55%

1.39Takedown average0.77

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

32Takedown accuracy0

UFC flyweight average : 26%

50Takedown defense86

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0.52Submission average0.38

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

5Wins by knockout7

9Wins by submission7

3Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout3

0Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision2

Amir Albazi vs Alessandro Costa is a scheduled Flyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : PROCHAZKA VS STIRLING. Amir Albazi enters with a 17-3-0 record and Alessandro Costa enters with a 17-5-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.