Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller

Oct 17, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast59%Katlyn Cerminara41%Mackenzie StillerFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionWomen's Flyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Katlyn CerminaraBlonde Fighter |18-6-0Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie StillerMackenzie StillerMack Judo |6-1-0

Katlyn CerminaraBlonde Fighter18-6-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

18-6-0Record6-1-0

37Age27

5'9"Height5'2"

68"Reach62"

125 lbsWeight115 lbs

Women's FlyweightWeight ClassWomen's Flyweight

Mackenzie StillerMack Judo6-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Katlyn Cerminara owns a 93-point Elo edge (good). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Katlyn Cerminara and Mackenzie Stiller across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller

Recent form

Katlyn CerminaraL L W W W · +4 Elo last 5

LLWWW

Mackenzie StillerW W W L W · +62 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Elo edge

Katlyn Cerminara1704-16 last move

Mackenzie Stiller1611+20 last move

Why they are ranked here

Katlyn CerminaraNot on the active ladder · 1704 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Cynthia Calvillo (rated 1686 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jéssica Andrade (rated 1663 at the time): -22.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +4 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1664, not 1704: 40 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Mackenzie Stiller#56 of 108 active Women Strawweight fighters · 1611 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Maria Henderson (rated 1500 at the time): +29.
Costliest loss: Lost to Sumiko Inaba (rated 1618 at the time): -25.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +62 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #55 Moeri Suda, 0 ahead of #57 Ming Shi.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

59%Katlyn Cerminara41%Mackenzie Stiller

Model favoriteKatlyn Cerminara

Elo baseline63% for Katlyn Cerminara

Matchup adjustment-4 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Katlyn CerminaraStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Katlyn Cerminara leads the full model at 59%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 4 points.

Current Elo ratings1704 · 1611Katlyn Cerminara leads by 93 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1678 · 1500Katlyn Cerminara faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 7 sampled fights).

Elo record depth25 · 7 fightsKatlyn Cerminara has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Katlyn CerminaraNow 1704

Wins by decision+9→ 1713

Loses by decision-15→ 1689

Mackenzie StillerNow 1611 · #56 Women Strawweight

Wins by decision+30→ 1641

Loses by decision-18→ 1593

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Katlyn CerminaravsMackenzie Stiller

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Katlyn Cerminaradecision leads 83% of wins

Mackenzie Stillersubmission leads 83% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Katlyn CerminaraMackenzie Stiller

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.58Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

35Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 44%

4.48Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

62Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 55%

0.31Takedown averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

0Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC flyweight average : 26%

50Takedown defenseNot available

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0.31Submission averageNot available

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

2Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission5

15Wins by decision1

2Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission0

4Losses by decision0

Katlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie Stiller is a scheduled Women's Flyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Katlyn Cerminara enters with a 18-6-0 record and Mackenzie Stiller enters with a 6-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.