Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Pérez

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Kyle NelsonThe Monster |17-7-1Kyle Nelson vs Cristian PérezCristian PérezEl Puas |15-2-0

Kyle NelsonThe Monster17-7-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

17-7-1Record15-2-0

35Age27

5'11"Height5'9"

71"Reach72"

149 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Cristian PérezEl Puas15-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Cristian Pérez owns a 35-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Kyle Nelson and Cristian Pérez across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Kyle NelsonCristian Pérez

Recent form

Kyle NelsonL W L W W · +13 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Cristian PérezW W L W W · +34 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Elo edge

Kyle Nelson1670-21 last move

Cristian Pérez1705+20 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

38%Kyle Nelson62%Cristian Pérez

Model favoriteCristian Pérez

Elo baseline55% for Cristian Pérez

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Cristian PérezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Cristian Pérez leads the full model at 62%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 7 points.

Current Elo ratings1670 · 1705Cristian Pérez leads by 35 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1672 · 1534Kyle Nelson faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth25 · 17 fightsKyle Nelson has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesKyle Nelson 2 · 2 Cristian PérezStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Kyle Nelson.

Stat advantages

Kyle NelsonvsCristian Pérez

Takedown accuracy

5%vs0%

Takedown average

1.18vs2.36

Sig. strike defense

54%vs39%

Submission average

0.52vs0.79

Finishing profile

Kyle Nelsondecision leads 41% of wins

Cristian PérezKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Kyle NelsonCristian Pérez

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.60Sig. strikes landed per min3.30

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

46Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC lightweight average : 46%

4.58Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.56

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

54Sig. strike defense39

UFC lightweight average : 53%

1.18Takedown average2.36

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

5Takedown accuracy0

UFC lightweight average : 29%

67Takedown defense88

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.52Submission average0.79

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

6Wins by knockout6

4Wins by submission6

7Wins by decision3

4Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision1

Kyle Nelson vs Cristian Pérez is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Kyle Nelson enters with a 17-7-1 record and Cristian Pérez enters with a 15-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.