Naohiro Matsumoto vs Masachika Takahashi

Nov 8, 2026 · RIZIN.TV

Combat Edge model forecast33%Naohiro Matsumoto67%Masachika TakahashiFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 8, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueLaLa arena TOKYO-BAY

BroadcastRIZIN.TV

Naohiro Matsumoto8-7-1Naohiro Matsumoto vs Masachika TakahashiMasachika Takahashi3-0-0

Naohiro Matsumoto8-7-1

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

8-7-1Record3-0-0

30Age21

5'7"Height5'7"

TBDReachTBD

145 lbsWeight146 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Masachika Takahashi3-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Masachika Takahashi owns a 34-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Naohiro Matsumoto and Masachika Takahashi across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Naohiro MatsumotoMasachika Takahashi

Recent form

Naohiro MatsumotoW W L W W · +56 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Masachika TakahashiW W W · +67 Elo last 3

WWW

Elo edge

Naohiro Matsumoto1533+25 last move

Masachika Takahashi1567+21 last move

Why they are ranked here

Naohiro Matsumoto#381 of 451 active Featherweight fighters · 1533 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ayumu Sasaki (rated 1477 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Hiromu Ueni (rated 1500 at the time): -28.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +56 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #380 Damien McKenna, 1 ahead of #382 Harda Karim.

Masachika Takahashi#325 of 451 active Featherweight fighters · 1567 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Yo Sasaki (rated 1500 at the time): +24.
Last 3 fights: 3 wins, 0 losses, +67 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #324 Manolo Zecchini, 1 ahead of #326 Mohammad Yahya.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1500 Elo over the last 3 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

33%Naohiro Matsumoto67%Masachika Takahashi

Model favoriteMasachika Takahashi

Elo baseline55% for Masachika Takahashi

Matchup adjustment+12 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Masachika TakahashiStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Masachika Takahashi leads the full model at 67%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 12 points.

Current Elo ratings1533 · 1567Masachika Takahashi leads by 34 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1504 · 1500Naohiro Matsumoto faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 3 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 3 fightsNaohiro Matsumoto has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Naohiro MatsumotoNow 1533 · #381 Featherweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1551

Loses by decision-14→ 1519

Masachika TakahashiNow 1567 · #325 Featherweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1589

Loses by decision-26→ 1541

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Naohiro MatsumotovsMasachika Takahashi

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Naohiro Matsumotosubmission leads 63% of wins

Masachika Takahashidecision leads 100% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Naohiro MatsumotoMasachika Takahashi

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.94

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.90

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 56%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

1Wins by knockout0

5Wins by submission0

2Wins by decision3

2Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission0

4Losses by decision0

Naohiro Matsumoto vs Masachika Takahashi is a scheduled Featherweight fight on RIZIN 55. Naohiro Matsumoto enters with a 8-7-1 record and Masachika Takahashi enters with a 3-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.