Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith

Oct 31, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast35%Randy Brown65%Jacobe SmithFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Randy BrownRude Boy |20-8-0Randy Brown vs Jacobe SmithJacobe SmithCobe |13-0-0

Randy BrownRude Boy20-8-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

20-8-0Record13-0-0

36Age30

6'3"Height5'10"

78"Reach72"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Jacobe SmithCobe13-0-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jacobe Smith owns a 6-point Elo edge (good). Jacobe Smith shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Randy BrownJacobe Smith

Recent form

Randy BrownL L W L W · -15 Elo last 5

LLWLW

Jacobe SmithW W W W W · +89 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Randy Brown1742-13 last move

Jacobe Smith1748+13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Randy Brown#34 of 369 active Welterweight fighters · 1742 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Muslim Salikhov (rated 1733 at the time): +20.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jack Della Maddalena (rated 1728 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -15 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #33 Gilbert Burns, 1 ahead of #35 Joaquin Buckley.

Jacobe Smith#31 of 369 active Welterweight fighters · 1748 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Preston Parsons (rated 1626 at the time): +25.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +89 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #30 Jake Matthews, 2 ahead of #32 Sam Patterson.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1553 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

35%Randy Brown65%Jacobe Smith

Model favoriteJacobe Smith

Elo baseline51% for Jacobe Smith

Matchup adjustment+14 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Jacobe SmithStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Jacobe Smith leads the full model at 65%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 15 points.

Current Elo ratings1742 · 1748Jacobe Smith leads by 6 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1728 · 1553Randy Brown faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth28 · 13 fightsRandy Brown has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesRandy Brown 1 · 3 Jacobe SmithStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Randy Brown.

What's at stake

Randy BrownNow 1742 · #34 Welterweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1754

Loses by decision-12→ 1730

Jacobe SmithNow 1748 · #31 Welterweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1764

Loses by decision-16→ 1732

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Randy BrownvsJacobe Smith

Takedown accuracy

16%vs0%

Takedown average

0.71vs7.92

Sig. strikes landed per min

4.39vs6.91

Sig. strike accuracy

47%vs67%

Finishing profile

Randy BrownKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Jacobe SmithKO/TKO leads 77% of wins

Common opponents

Kevin Holland Randy Brown: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Apr 11, 2026Jacobe Smith: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Jul 18, 2026

Niko PriceRandy Brown: loss · KO (punches) · Jul 14, 2018Jacobe Smith: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Jun 28, 2025

Tale of the tape

Randy BrownJacobe Smith

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.39Sig. strikes landed per min6.91

UFC welterweight average : 3.65

47Sig. strike accuracy67

UFC welterweight average : 46%

3.35Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.77

UFC welterweight average : 3.83

54Sig. strike defense50

UFC welterweight average : 53%

0.71Takedown average7.92

UFC welterweight average : 1.43

16Takedown accuracy0

UFC welterweight average : 30%

75Takedown defense100

UFC welterweight average : 59%

0.52Submission average0.66

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

8Wins by knockout10

5Wins by submission1

7Wins by decision2

3Losses by knockout0

2Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision0

Randy Brown vs Jacobe Smith is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Randy Brown enters with a 20-8-0 record and Jacobe Smith enters with a 13-0-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.