Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope

Oct 31, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast58%Francis Marshall42%Dakota HopeFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Francis MarshallFire |10-3-0Francis Marshall vs Dakota HopeDakota HopeHuracan |11-2-0

Francis MarshallFire10-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-3-0Record11-2-0

27Age29

5'9"Height5'6"

72"Reach67"

155 lbsWeight146 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Dakota HopeHuracan11-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Dakota Hope owns a 10-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Francis Marshall and Dakota Hope across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Francis MarshallDakota Hope

Recent form

Francis MarshallW W L W L · +16 Elo last 5

WWLWL

Dakota HopeL W W W W · +46 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Elo edge

Francis Marshall1655+17 last move

Dakota Hope1665-14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Francis Marshall#153 of 440 active Lightweight fighters · 1655 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Marcelo Rojo (rated 1587 at the time): +25.
Costliest loss: Lost to Isaac Dulgarian (rated 1616 at the time): -32.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +16 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #152 Anthony Romero, 1 ahead of #154 Lance Gibson Jr..

Dakota Hope#130 of 440 active Lightweight fighters · 1665 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Colton Hamm (rated 1500 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to David Bosnick (rated 1462 at the time): -35.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +46 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #129 Sheymon Moraes, 1 ahead of #131 Aaron McKenzie.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

58%Francis Marshall42%Dakota Hope

Model favoriteFrancis Marshall

Elo baseline49% for Francis Marshall

Matchup adjustment+9 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Francis MarshallStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Francis Marshall is 58%, after Elo alone favored Dakota Hope at 51%.

Current Elo ratings1655 · 1665Dakota Hope leads by 10 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1597 · 1532Francis Marshall faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth13 · 13 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesFrancis Marshall 2 · 2 Dakota HopeStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Dakota Hope.

What's at stake

Francis MarshallNow 1655 · #153 Lightweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1671

Loses by decision-16→ 1639

Dakota HopeNow 1665 · #130 Lightweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1681

Loses by decision-16→ 1649

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Francis MarshallvsDakota Hope

Takedown accuracy

3%vs33%

Takedown average

2.71vs1

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.19vs7.07

Submission average

0.51vs0

Finishing profile

Francis Marshallsubmission leads 50% of wins

Dakota HopeKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Francis MarshallDakota Hope

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.19Sig. strikes landed per min7.07

UFC lightweight average : 3.81

34Sig. strike accuracy41

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.45Sig. strikes absorbed per min7

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

55Sig. strike defense34

UFC lightweight average : 53%

2.71Takedown average1

UFC lightweight average : 1.67

3Takedown accuracy33

UFC lightweight average : 28%

89Takedown defense100

UFC lightweight average : 58%

0.51Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.55

1Wins by knockout5

5Wins by submission1

4Wins by decision5

1Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision2

Francis Marshall vs Dakota Hope is a scheduled Featherweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Francis Marshall enters with a 10-3-0 record and Dakota Hope enters with a 11-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.