Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionWomen's Flyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Ernesta KareckaiteHeavy-Handed |6-2-1Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa GattoMelissa Gatto9-3-2

Ernesta KareckaiteHeavy-Handed6-2-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

6-2-1Record9-3-2

28Age30

5'9"Height5'5"

71"Reach69"

125 lbsWeight135 lbs

Women's FlyweightWeight ClassWomen's Flyweight

Melissa Gatto9-3-2

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Ernesta Kareckaite owns a 11-point Elo edge (solid). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto

Recent form

Ernesta KareckaiteL W L W W · +15 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Melissa GattoL W L L L · -52 Elo last 5

LWLLL

Elo edge

Ernesta Kareckaite1582-20 last move

Melissa Gatto1571-20 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

45%Ernesta Kareckaite55%Melissa Gatto

Model favoriteMelissa Gatto

Elo baseline48% for Melissa Gatto

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Melissa GattoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Melissa Gatto is 55%, after Elo alone favored Ernesta Kareckaite at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1582 · 1571Ernesta Kareckaite leads by 11 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1549 · 1588Melissa Gatto faced the stronger recent schedule (9 vs 9 sampled fights).

Elo record depth9 · 9 fightsThe published ratings use the same number of counted fights.

Largest tracked stat edgesErnesta Kareckaite 2 · 2 Melissa GattoStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Ernesta Kareckaite.

Stat advantages

Ernesta KareckaitevsMelissa Gatto

Takedown accuracy

20%vs3%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

6.47vs2.67

Takedown average

0.75vs1.77

Sig. strikes landed per min

7.28vs3.47

Finishing profile

Ernesta Kareckaitedecision leads 67% of wins

Melissa Gattosubmission leads 44% of wins

Common opponents

Dione Barbosa Ernesta Kareckaite: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · May 4, 2024 Melissa Gatto: loss · Decision (majority) · Apr 4, 2026

Tale of the tape

Ernesta KareckaiteMelissa Gatto

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

7.28Sig. strikes landed per min3.47

UFC flyweight average : 3.95

42Sig. strike accuracy50

UFC flyweight average : 44%

6.47Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.67

UFC flyweight average : 3.88

50Sig. strike defense54

UFC flyweight average : 55%

0.75Takedown average1.77

UFC flyweight average : 1.44

20Takedown accuracy3

UFC flyweight average : 27%

81Takedown defense59

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0Submission average0.39

UFC flyweight average : 0.61

2Wins by knockout3

0Wins by submission4

4Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

2Losses by decision3

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto is a scheduled Women's Flyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Ernesta Kareckaite enters with a 6-2-1 record and Melissa Gatto enters with a 9-3-2 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.