Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLightweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Matheus CamiloJaguar |11-3-0Matheus Camilo vs Jai HerbertJai HerbertThe Black Country Banger |14-6-1

Matheus CamiloJaguar11-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-3-0Record14-6-1

25Age38

5'10"Height6'1"

69" Reach77"

155 lbsWeight155 lbs

LightweightWeight ClassLightweight

Jai HerbertThe Black Country Banger14-6-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jai Herbert owns a 17-point Elo edge (good). Matheus Camilo shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Matheus CamiloJai Herbert

Recent form

Matheus CamiloW W L W W · +47 Elo last 5

WWLWW

Jai HerbertW L W L D · +5 Elo last 5

WLWLD

Elo edge

Matheus Camilo1658+23 last move

Jai Herbert1675+19 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

58%Matheus Camilo42%Jai Herbert

Model favoriteMatheus Camilo

Elo baseline48% for Matheus Camilo

Matchup adjustment+10 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Matheus CamiloStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Matheus Camilo is 58%, after Elo alone favored Jai Herbert at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1658 · 1675Jai Herbert leads by 17 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1545 · 1672Jai Herbert faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 21 fightsJai Herbert has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesMatheus Camilo 3 · 1 Jai HerbertStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Matheus Camilo.

Stat advantages

Matheus CamilovsJai Herbert

Takedown accuracy

15%vs0%

Takedown defense

0%vs67%

Takedown average

4.16vs0.42

Submission average

0.59vs0

Finishing profile

Matheus CamiloKO/TKO leads 45% of wins

Jai HerbertKO/TKO leads 71% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Matheus CamiloJai Herbert

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.22Sig. strikes landed per min3.19

UFC lightweight average : 3.82

43Sig. strike accuracy42

UFC lightweight average : 46%

3.05Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.34

UFC lightweight average : 3.91

67Sig. strike defense53

UFC lightweight average : 53%

4.16Takedown average0.42

UFC lightweight average : 1.69

15Takedown accuracy0

UFC lightweight average : 29%

0Takedown defense67

UFC lightweight average : 59%

0.59Submission average0

UFC lightweight average : 0.50

5Wins by knockout10

2Wins by submission1

4Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout3

3Losses by submission1

0Losses by decision2

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert is a scheduled Lightweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Matheus Camilo enters with a 11-3-0 record and Jai Herbert enters with a 14-6-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.