Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionWomen's Strawweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Lupita GodinezLoopy |14-6-0Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen SouzaKetlen SouzaEsquentadinha |17-6-0

Lupita GodinezLoopy14-6-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

14-6-0Record17-6-0

33Age32

5'2"Height5'2"

61"Reach63"

115 lbsWeight115 lbs

Women's StrawweightWeight ClassWomen's Strawweight

Ketlen SouzaEsquentadinha17-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Lupita Godinez owns a 18-point Elo edge (good). Lupita Godinez shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 3 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Lupita Godinez and Ketlen Souza across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Lupita GodinezKetlen Souza

Recent form

Lupita GodinezL W W L L · -14 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Ketlen SouzaW W L L W · +36 Elo last 5

WWLLW

Elo edge

Lupita Godinez1667-16 last move

Ketlen Souza1649+20 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

56%Lupita Godinez44%Ketlen Souza

Model favoriteLupita Godinez

Elo baseline53% for Lupita Godinez

Matchup adjustment+3 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Lupita GodinezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Lupita Godinez leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 3 points.

Current Elo ratings1667 · 1649Lupita Godinez leads by 18 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1651 · 1605Lupita Godinez faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth20 · 19 fightsLupita Godinez has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesLupita Godinez 4 · 0 Ketlen SouzaStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Lupita Godinez.

Stat advantages

Lupita GodinezvsKetlen Souza

Takedown accuracy

16%vs0%

Takedown average

2.99vs0.45

Submission average

0.82vs0.23

Takedown defense

77%vs54%

Finishing profile

Lupita Godinezdecision leads 79% of wins

Ketlen SouzaKO/TKO leads 53% of wins

Common opponents

Ariane Carnelossi Lupita Godinez: win · Decision (Unanimous) · May 7, 2022 Ketlen Souza: win · KO (Kick to the head and punches) · Jun 6, 2026

Angela Hill Lupita Godinez: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Aug 13, 2022 Ketlen Souza: loss · Decision (Split) · Feb 15, 2025

Ariane Carnelossi Lupita Godinez: win · Decision (Unanimous) · May 7, 2022Ketlen Souza: loss · TKO (body kick) · May 24, 2019

Tale of the tape

Lupita GodinezKetlen Souza

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.43Sig. strikes landed per min4.11

UFC strawweight average : 4.00

49Sig. strike accuracy57

UFC strawweight average : 45%

3.94Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.89

UFC strawweight average : 4.06

62Sig. strike defense53

UFC strawweight average : 54%

2.99Takedown average0.45

UFC strawweight average : 1.38

16Takedown accuracy0

UFC strawweight average : 32%

77Takedown defense54

UFC strawweight average : 60%

0.82Submission average0.23

UFC strawweight average : 0.42

1Wins by knockout9

2Wins by submission2

11Wins by decision6

0Losses by knockout2

1Losses by submission2

5Losses by decision2

Lupita Godinez vs Ketlen Souza is a scheduled Women's Strawweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Lupita Godinez enters with a 14-6-0 record and Ketlen Souza enters with a 17-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.