Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro

DateOct 10, 2026

DivisionLight Heavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 10, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Felipe FrancoNegao |11-2-0Felipe Franco vs Brendson RibeiroBrendson RibeiroThe Gorilla |17-11-0

Felipe FrancoNegao11-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-2-0Record17-11-0

25Age30

6'1"Height6'3"

76"Reach81"

205 lbsWeight205 lbs

Light HeavyweightWeight ClassLight Heavyweight

Brendson RibeiroThe Gorilla17-11-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Felipe Franco owns a 112-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Felipe Franco and Brendson Ribeiro across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Felipe FrancoBrendson Ribeiro

Recent form

Felipe FrancoW L W W L · -9 Elo last 5

WLWWL

Brendson RibeiroL L L L W · -21 Elo last 5

LLLLW

Elo edge

Felipe Franco1665+18 last move

Brendson Ribeiro1553-12 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

72%Felipe Franco28%Brendson Ribeiro

Model favoriteFelipe Franco

Elo baseline66% for Felipe Franco

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Felipe FrancoStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Felipe Franco leads the full model at 72%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1665 · 1553Felipe Franco leads by 112 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1535 · 1654Brendson Ribeiro faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth13 · 23 fightsBrendson Ribeiro has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesFelipe Franco 2 · 2 Brendson RibeiroStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Brendson Ribeiro.

Stat advantages

Felipe FrancovsBrendson Ribeiro

Takedown accuracy

0%vs43%

Takedown defense

88%vs21%

Takedown average

3.02vs0.85

Submission average

0vs0.57

Finishing profile

Felipe FrancoKO/TKO leads 64% of wins

Brendson RibeiroKO/TKO leads 53% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Felipe FrancoBrendson Ribeiro

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.81Sig. strikes landed per min3.04

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.99

51Sig. strike accuracy43

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

2.55Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.91

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.74

38Sig. strike defense53

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

3.02Takedown average0.85

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.37

0Takedown accuracy43

UFC light heavyweight average : 28%

88Takedown defense21

UFC light heavyweight average : 57%

0Submission average0.57

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

7Wins by knockout9

4Wins by submission7

0Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout5

1Losses by submission3

1Losses by decision3

Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro is a scheduled Light Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ALLEN VS DUNCAN. Felipe Franco enters with a 11-2-0 record and Brendson Ribeiro enters with a 17-11-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.