Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady

Nov 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast57%Gabriel Bonfim43%Sean BradyFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionWelterweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Gabriel BonfimMarretinha |20-1-0Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean BradySean Brady19-2-0

Gabriel BonfimMarretinha20-1-0

Fight Overview

Round5

Time5:00

20-1-0Record19-2-0

29Age33

6'0"Height5'9"

72″Reach72"

170 lbsWeight170 lbs

WelterweightWeight ClassWelterweight

Sean Brady19-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

The Elo matchup is close or still provisional. Sean Brady shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Gabriel Bonfim and Sean Brady across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Gabriel BonfimSean Brady

Recent form

Gabriel BonfimW W W W W · +78 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Sean BradyW L W W W · +51 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Gabriel Bonfim1808+17 last move

Sean Brady1808+15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Gabriel Bonfim#8 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1808 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mounir Lazzez (rated 1676 at the time): +28.
Costliest loss: Lost to Nicolas Dalby (rated 1724 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +78 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #7 Rinat Fakhretdinov, 0 ahead of #9 Sean Brady.

Sean Brady#9 of 356 active Welterweight fighters · 1808 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Leon Edwards (rated 1829 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Michael Morales (rated 1822 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +51 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #8 Gabriel Bonfim, 3 ahead of #10 Belal Muhammad.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

57%Gabriel Bonfim43%Sean Brady

Model favoriteGabriel Bonfim

Elo baseline50% for Gabriel Bonfim

Matchup adjustment+7 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Gabriel BonfimStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model breaks Elo tie

Elo alone has this matchup at 50/50. The full matchup model separates the fighters and leans Gabriel Bonfim at 57%.

Current Elo ratings1808 · 1808The fighters have the same published Elo rating.

Recent opponent quality1690 · 1751Sean Brady faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth17 · 21 fightsSean Brady has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesGabriel Bonfim 1 · 3 Sean BradyStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Sean Brady.

What's at stake

Gabriel BonfimNow 1808 · #8 Welterweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1824

Loses by decision-16→ 1792

Sean BradyNow 1808 · #9 Welterweight

Wins by decision+16→ 1824

Loses by decision-16→ 1792

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Gabriel BonfimvsSean Brady

Takedown accuracy

0%vs3%

Takedown average

2.57vs3.58

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

3.61vs2.77

Submission average

1.03vs0.82

Finishing profile

Gabriel Bonfimsubmission leads 65% of wins

Sean Bradydecision leads 53% of wins

Common opponents

Belal Muhammad Gabriel Bonfim: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jun 6, 2026 Sean Brady: loss · TKO (punches) · Oct 22, 2022

Belal Muhammad Gabriel Bonfim: win · Decision (Unanimous) · Jun 6, 2026Sean Brady: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Dec 19, 2020

Tale of the tape

Gabriel BonfimSean Brady

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.76Sig. strikes landed per min4.08

UFC welterweight average : 3.66

47Sig. strike accuracy53

UFC welterweight average : 46%

3.61Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.77

UFC welterweight average : 3.84

65Sig. strike defense60

UFC welterweight average : 53%

2.57Takedown average3.58

UFC welterweight average : 1.41

0Takedown accuracy3

UFC welterweight average : 30%

79Takedown defense87

UFC welterweight average : 59%

1.03Submission average0.82

UFC welterweight average : 0.54

4Wins by knockout3

13Wins by submission6

3Wins by decision10

1Losses by knockout2

0Losses by submission0

0Losses by decision0

Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean Brady is a scheduled Welterweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BONFIM VS BRADY. Gabriel Bonfim enters with a 20-1-0 record and Sean Brady enters with a 19-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.