UFC FIGHT NIGHT : CORTES ACOSTA VS WALKER

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli

Nov 7, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast31%Mitch Raposo69%Marcos DegliFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 7, 2026

DivisionFlyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, November 7, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Mitch Raposo11-3-0Mitch Raposo vs Marcos DegliMarcos DegliTailandes |15-3-0

Mitch Raposo11-3-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-3-0Record15-3-0

28Age26

5'5"Height5'6"

64"Reach67"

125 lbsWeight125 lbs

FlyweightWeight ClassFlyweight

Marcos DegliTailandes15-3-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Marcos Degli owns a 42-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Mitch Raposo and Marcos Degli across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Mitch RaposoMarcos Degli

Recent form

Mitch RaposoW W L L W · +24 Elo last 5

WWLLW

Marcos DegliW W W W W · +60 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Mitch Raposo1670+15 last move

Marcos Degli1712+18 last move

Why they are ranked here

Mitch Raposo#53 of 225 active Flyweight fighters · 1670 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Flávio Carvalho (rated 1500 at the time): +20.
Costliest loss: Lost to Jake Hadley (rated 1646 at the time): -26.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +24 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #52 Roque Conceicao, 1 ahead of #54 Aaron Tau.

Marcos Degli#19 of 225 active Flyweight fighters · 1712 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Alexandre Rodrigues (rated 1500 at the time): +23.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +60 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #18 Antônio César, 1 ahead of #20 Brandon Royval.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1524 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

31%Mitch Raposo69%Marcos Degli

Model favoriteMarcos Degli

Elo baseline56% for Marcos Degli

Matchup adjustment+13 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Marcos DegliStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Marcos Degli leads the full model at 69%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 13 points.

Current Elo ratings1670 · 1712Marcos Degli leads by 42 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1585 · 1524Mitch Raposo faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth14 · 18 fightsMarcos Degli has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesMitch Raposo 2 · 2 Marcos DegliStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Mitch Raposo.

What's at stake

Mitch RaposoNow 1670 · #53 Flyweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1688

Loses by decision-14→ 1656

Marcos DegliNow 1712 · #19 Flyweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1726

Loses by decision-18→ 1694

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Mitch RaposovsMarcos Degli

Takedown accuracy

4%vs0%

Takedown defense

68%vs0%

Submission average

0vs4.61

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.92vs0.51

Finishing profile

Mitch RaposoKO/TKO leads 36% of wins

Marcos DegliKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Common opponents

André Lima Mitch Raposo: loss · Decision (Split) · Jun 1, 2024Marcos Degli: cancelled · Cancelled Bout · Dec 5, 2020

Tale of the tape

Mitch RaposoMarcos Degli

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.91Sig. strikes landed per min1.95

UFC flyweight average : 3.94

38Sig. strike accuracy68

UFC flyweight average : 44%

2.92Sig. strikes absorbed per min0.51

UFC flyweight average : 3.85

61Sig. strike defense75

UFC flyweight average : 55%

1.98Takedown average4.61

UFC flyweight average : 1.46

4Takedown accuracy0

UFC flyweight average : 26%

68Takedown defense0

UFC flyweight average : 57%

0Submission average4.61

UFC flyweight average : 0.63

4Wins by knockout9

3Wins by submission5

4Wins by decision1

0Losses by knockout0

1Losses by submission1

2Losses by decision2

Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli is a scheduled Flyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : CORTES ACOSTA VS WALKER. Mitch Raposo enters with a 11-3-0 record and Marcos Degli enters with a 15-3-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.