Asaël Adjoudj vs Movlid Khaybulaev

Nov 14, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast53%Asaël Adjoudj47%Movlid KhaybulaevFull forecast and your pick

DateNov 14, 2026

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueCoca-Cola Arena

BroadcastESPN 2

Asaël AdjoudjThe Sultan |11-1-0Asaël Adjoudj vs Movlid KhaybulaevMovlid KhaybulaevKiller |23-0-1

Asaël AdjoudjThe Sultan11-1-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

11-1-0Record23-0-1

27Age35

6'0"Height5'6"

72"Reach70"

145 lbsWeight145 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Movlid KhaybulaevKiller23-0-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Movlid Khaybulaev owns a 134-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Asaël Adjoudj and Movlid Khaybulaev across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Asaël AdjoudjMovlid Khaybulaev

Recent form

Asaël AdjoudjW W W W W · +86 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Movlid KhaybulaevW W W W W · +46 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Asaël Adjoudj1709+16 last move

Movlid Khaybulaev1843+15 last move

Why they are ranked here

Asaël Adjoudj#64 of 372 active Featherweight fighters · 1709 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ozodbek Azimov (rated 1500 at the time): +28.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +86 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #63 Erick Visconde, 0 ahead of #65 Ian Escuza.
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1537 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Movlid Khaybulaev#4 of 372 active Featherweight fighters · 1843 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Lance Palmer (rated 1765 at the time): +16.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +46 Elo in total.
Next places: 13 points behind #3 Aljamain Sterling, 10 ahead of #5 AJ McKee Jr..
Opposition: Opponents averaged 1642 Elo over the last 10 fights. Beating higher-rated opponents is worth more.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

53%Asaël Adjoudj47%Movlid Khaybulaev

Model favoriteAsaël Adjoudj

Elo baseline32% for Asaël Adjoudj

Matchup adjustment+21 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Asaël AdjoudjStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Asaël Adjoudj is 53%, after Elo alone favored Movlid Khaybulaev at 68%.

Current Elo ratings1709 · 1843Movlid Khaybulaev leads by 134 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1537 · 1642Movlid Khaybulaev faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth12 · 25 fightsMovlid Khaybulaev has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Asaël AdjoudjNow 1709 · #64 Featherweight

Wins by decision+22→ 1731

Loses by decision-10→ 1699

Movlid KhaybulaevNow 1843 · #4 Featherweight

Wins by decision+8→ 1851

Loses by decision-16→ 1827

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Asaël AdjoudjvsMovlid Khaybulaev

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Asaël Adjoudjdecision leads 45% of wins

Movlid Khaybulaevdecision leads 61% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Asaël AdjoudjMovlid Khaybulaev

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

Not availableSig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 46%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 54%

Not availableTakedown averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

Not availableTakedown accuracyNot available

UFC featherweight average : 29%

Not availableTakedown defenseNot available

UFC featherweight average : 55%

Not availableSubmission averageNot available

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

4Wins by knockout6

2Wins by submission3

5Wins by decision14

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission0

1Losses by decision0

Asaël Adjoudj vs Movlid Khaybulaev is a scheduled Featherweight fight on PFL DUBAI : NEMKOV VS BILOSTENNIY. Asaël Adjoudj enters with a 11-1-0 record and Movlid Khaybulaev enters with a 23-0-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.