Javad Mahjoub vs Louie Sutherland

DateOct 17, 2026

DivisionHeavyweight

StatusScheduled

VenueRogers Place

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 17, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe: Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 9:00 AM
Your time

Javad Mahjoub5-0-0Javad Mahjoub vs Louie SutherlandLouie SutherlandThe Vanilla Gorilla |11-6-0

Javad Mahjoub5-0-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

5-0-0Record11-6-0

35Age32

6'1"Height6'3"

-Reach76"

254 lbsWeight266 lbs

HeavyweightWeight ClassHeavyweight

Louie SutherlandThe Vanilla Gorilla11-6-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Javad Mahjoub owns a 29-point Elo edge (solid). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Javad Mahjoub and Louie Sutherland across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Javad MahjoubLouie Sutherland

Recent form

Javad MahjoubW W W W W · +112 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Louie SutherlandL W L L W · -21 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Elo edge

Javad Mahjoub1613+21 last move

Louie Sutherland1584-20 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

18%Javad Mahjoub82%Louie Sutherland

Model favoriteLouie Sutherland

Elo baseline46% for Louie Sutherland

Matchup adjustment+36 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Louie SutherlandStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Louie Sutherland is 82%, after Elo alone favored Javad Mahjoub at 54%.

Current Elo ratings1613 · 1584Javad Mahjoub leads by 29 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1482 · 1565Louie Sutherland faced the stronger recent schedule (5 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth5 · 17 fightsLouie Sutherland has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

Stat advantages

Javad MahjoubvsLouie Sutherland

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Javad MahjoubKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Louie SutherlandKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Javad MahjoubLouie Sutherland

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not availableSig. strikes landed per min1.80

UFC heavyweight average : 3.88

Not availableSig. strike accuracy69

UFC heavyweight average : 49%

Not availableSig. strikes absorbed per min1.95

UFC heavyweight average : 3.84

Not availableSig. strike defense35

UFC heavyweight average : 51%

Not availableTakedown average4.49

UFC heavyweight average : 1.41

Not availableTakedown accuracy0

UFC heavyweight average : 31%

Not availableTakedown defense33

UFC heavyweight average : 54%

Not availableSubmission average0

UFC heavyweight average : 0.41

3Wins by knockout8

1Wins by submission0

1Wins by decision3

0Losses by knockout1

0Losses by submission2

0Losses by decision3

Javad Mahjoub vs Louie Sutherland is a scheduled Heavyweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : BUCKLEY VS MALOTT. Javad Mahjoub enters with a 5-0-0 record and Louie Sutherland enters with a 11-6-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.