Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos

Sep 5, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast41%Nathaniel Wood59%Mairon SantosFull forecast

DateSep 5, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueAccor Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 5, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 3:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 12:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 8:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 9:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 5:00 AM
Your time

Nathaniel WoodThe Prospect |23-7-0Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon SantosMairon SantosThe Legend |17-1-0

Nathaniel WoodThe Prospect23-7-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

23-7-0Record17-1-0

33Age26

5'6"Height5'9"

69"Reach 72"

145 lbsWeight145 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Mairon SantosThe Legend17-1-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Mairon Santos owns a 37-point Elo edge (great). Nathaniel Wood shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Nathaniel Wood and Mairon Santos across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Nathaniel WoodMairon Santos

Recent form

Nathaniel WoodL W W W W · +32 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Mairon SantosW W W W W · +68 Elo last 5

WWWWW

Elo edge

Nathaniel Wood1720-14 last move

Mairon Santos1757+17 last move

Why they are ranked here

Nathaniel Wood#45 of 375 active Featherweight fighters · 1720 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Charles Jourdain (rated 1686 at the time): +16.
Costliest loss: Lost to Muhammad Naimov (rated 1647 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +32 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #44 Raul Ramses, 1 ahead of #46 Doo Ho Choi.

Mairon Santos#17 of 375 active Featherweight fighters · 1757 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Muhammad Naimov (rated 1696 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Dan Argueta (rated 1634 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 5 wins, 0 losses, +68 Elo in total.
Next places: 7 points behind #16 Pat Sabatini, 1 ahead of #18 Brendan Loughnane.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

41%Nathaniel Wood59%Mairon Santos

Model favoriteMairon Santos

Elo baseline53% for Mairon Santos

Matchup adjustment+6 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Mairon SantosStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Mairon Santos leads the full model at 59%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 6 points.

Current Elo ratings1720 · 1757Mairon Santos leads by 37 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1677 · 1584Nathaniel Wood faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth29 · 18 fightsNathaniel Wood has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNathaniel Wood 3 · 1 Mairon SantosStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Nathaniel Wood.

What's at stake

Nathaniel WoodNow 1720 · #45 Featherweight

Wins by decision+13→ 1733

Loses by decision-11→ 1709

Mairon SantosNow 1757 · #17 Featherweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1771

Loses by decision-18→ 1739

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Nathaniel WoodvsMairon Santos

Takedown average

1.35vs0

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

4.25vs2.24

Submission average

0.47vs0

Sig. strikes landed per min

5.64vs3.33

Finishing profile

Nathaniel Wooddecision leads 43% of wins

Mairon SantosKO/TKO leads 53% of wins

Common opponents

Muhammad Naimov Nathaniel Wood: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Oct 21, 2023 Mairon Santos: win · TKO (punches) · Dec 6, 2025

Tale of the tape

Nathaniel WoodMairon Santos

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

5.64Sig. strikes landed per min3.33

UFC featherweight average : 3.93

51Sig. strike accuracy48

UFC featherweight average : 46%

4.25Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.24

UFC featherweight average : 3.88

54Sig. strike defense66

UFC featherweight average : 54%

1.35Takedown average0

UFC featherweight average : 1.57

0Takedown accuracy0

UFC featherweight average : 29%

73Takedown defense69

UFC featherweight average : 55%

0.47Submission average0

UFC featherweight average : 0.65

8Wins by knockout9

5Wins by submission0

10Wins by decision8

2Losses by knockout1

2Losses by submission0

3Losses by decision0

Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : HOOKER VS PARNASSE. Nathaniel Wood enters with a 23-7-0 record and Mairon Santos enters with a 17-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.