Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez

DateOct 31, 2026

DivisionWomen's Strawweight

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 12:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 1:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 11:00 AM
Your time

Talita AlencarThe Problem Child |8-1-1Talita Alencar vs Piera RodriguezPiera RodriguezLa Fiera |12-2-0

Talita AlencarThe Problem Child8-1-1

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

8-1-1Record12-2-0

35Age33

5'1"Height5'3"

58"Reach63"

115 lbsWeight115 lbs

Women's StrawweightWeight ClassWomen's Strawweight

Piera RodriguezLa Fiera12-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Piera Rodriguez owns a 37-point Elo edge (good). Piera Rodriguez shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Talita Alencar and Piera Rodriguez across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Talita AlencarPiera Rodriguez

Recent form

Talita AlencarW W W L W · +60 Elo last 5

WWWLW

Piera RodriguezW W W L L · -1 Elo last 5

WWWLL

Elo edge

Talita Alencar1668+16 last move

Piera Rodriguez1705+13 last move

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28

34%Talita Alencar66%Piera Rodriguez

Model favoritePiera Rodriguez

Elo baseline55% for Piera Rodriguez

Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Piera RodriguezStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Piera Rodriguez leads the full model at 66%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 10 points.

Current Elo ratings1668 · 1705Piera Rodriguez leads by 37 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1550 · 1586Piera Rodriguez faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth11 · 15 fightsPiera Rodriguez has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesTalita Alencar 1 · 3 Piera RodriguezStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Talita Alencar.

Stat advantages

Talita AlencarvsPiera Rodriguez

Submission average

0.60vs0

Takedown accuracy

27%vs55%

Takedown average

3.02vs4.53

Sig. strike accuracy

38%vs47%

Finishing profile

Talita Alencarsubmission leads 50% of wins

Piera Rodriguezdecision leads 58% of wins

Common opponents

Ariane Carnelossi Talita Alencar: win · Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · Nov 1, 2025 Piera Rodriguez: loss · Disqualification (Headbutts) · May 18, 2024

Tale of the tape

Talita AlencarPiera Rodriguez

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.91Sig. strikes landed per min3.54

UFC strawweight average : 4.00

38Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC strawweight average : 45%

3.36Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.81

UFC strawweight average : 4.06

56Sig. strike defense56

UFC strawweight average : 54%

3.02Takedown average4.53

UFC strawweight average : 1.38

27Takedown accuracy55

UFC strawweight average : 32%

67Takedown defense73

UFC strawweight average : 60%

0.60Submission average0

UFC strawweight average : 0.42

0Wins by knockout5

4Wins by submission0

4Wins by decision7

0Losses by knockout0

0Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision0

Talita Alencar vs Piera Rodriguez is a scheduled Women's Strawweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MOICANO VS NOLAN. Talita Alencar enters with a 8-1-1 record and Piera Rodriguez enters with a 12-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.